Spatial Exploration 2023 | PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

08-03-2023 | Rapport

In the Spatial Outlook 2023, PBL has developed scenarios for the layout of the Netherlands in 2050. Four possible spatial futures are presented in this main report. These are: Global Enterprising (a future scenario in which large companies take the lead), Fast World (the further increase in digitization makes distances disappear), Green Land (plenty of space for nature) and Regionally Rooted (citizens take the initiative in their own living environment ). Detailed maps of the associated Netherlands in 2050 have been made for each scenario based on spatial modeling and design research. These scenario maps show the consequences of different choices.

The full report including in-depth information will be online within a few days. Leave your e-mail address if you would like to be notified. The printed version will also be available from 29 March. You can already request this now.

Reason for current investment plans backwards from the future

Sustainability, tackling the housing shortage and adapting to climate change require major spatial interventions in the Netherlands. It is therefore important that the government makes stricter choices than is currently the case. The new residential areas, infrastructure for traffic, energy and water, business parks and facilities in which investments are currently being made will last an average of at least fifty to one hundred years and will have a major impact on the quality of the living environment in the near and distant future. That is why it is wise to reason back from the future in current investment plans. The four developed scenarios can help policymakers with this.

Invest now in a future-proof spatial structure

Policymakers are faced with a large number of choices. A refurbishment requires a coordinated approach. By making a spatial structure decisive for investments for a longer period, developments in agriculture and nature can reinforce each other, existing and new infrastructure can be used efficiently and effectively, and investments in living and working can progress smoothly. In the scenarios in this Spatial Exploration, we outline various options for spatial structures, as building blocks for a beckoning spatial perspective for the future, with matching administrative arrangements.
In the field of agriculture and nature, the scenarios provide different answers to the question to what extent and in what ways water and soil are leading for the spatial development of rural areas, and in what ways nature can be expanded.
In the field of energy and the circular economy, an answer is needed to the question of whether the required infrastructure is leading or following. For example, will network optimization be given priority or should connections facilitate the planned residential and work areas and distributed locations for energy generation?
As far as the development of liveable cities and regions is concerned, the distribution of population development between regions and within regions determines the spatial structure. The images in the scenarios vary from a greater emphasis on the west of the country to a greater spread across the entire country, and from greater urban densification to urbanization in lower densities outside the existing built-up area

Provide implementation capacity for governments at all scale levels and for new institutions

Spatial planning requires the early involvement of all relevant actors: governments, citizens, businesses and civil society organisations. This requires governments to have both a social orientation and sufficient implementation power. In all scenarios, the realization of the major spatial challenges far exceeds the challenges faced by the government in recent decades. If the Netherlands wants to take up these tasks energetically, then sufficient manpower, substantive expertise, powers and money are required in both the public and private sectors. As far as the public sector is concerned, this concerns all levels of government.
Given the high demand for space in the Netherlands, the national government opts for multiple use of space where possible in the National Environmental Vision. The scenarios provide various examples of combinations of functions, both in urban and rural areas and in the North Sea. Combining functions is difficult to achieve in current Dutch policy. Multiple use of space requires a major change in administrative practice. Better harmonization of policy is required in order to identify synergy between functions in various fields at an early stage. Decompartmentalizing government policy can help here, and in implementation the decompartmentalization of financial resources (‘area funds’) can enable decentralized governments to take the step towards concrete, coherent plans.