The global aviation industry is facing a precarious fuel crisis as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers severe jet fuel shortages across international hubs. While some regions are already experiencing rationing, the Swiss government is closely monitoring a timeline that suggests the impact will hit European soil in full force by May.
The disruption centers on the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, where ongoing conflict in the Middle East has blocked the flow of oil. This has sent shockwaves through the supply chain, causing jet fuel prices to more than double since the outbreak of war in Iran, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
For passengers, the crisis is manifesting first as higher costs. Lufthansa Group, the parent company of Swiss and Edelweiss, has already increased fuel surcharges to offset the rising costs of kerosene. While the group has hedged 80 percent of its fuel requirements for the current year to buffer the blow, the volatility of the market is becoming impossible to ignore.
Grazia Vittadini, Lufthansa’s board member for Technology, IT, and Innovation, warned that the situation is already critical at several Asian airports. Vittadini noted that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more precarious the overall security of the kerosene supply becomes.
Regional Breaking Points: From Italy to Asia
The crisis is no longer a theoretical risk; it is a current reality in parts of Europe. In Italy, fuel rationing has already begun at several key airports. BP’s aviation division has been forced to temporarily restrict deliveries to airports including Milan-Linate, Venice, Treviso, and Bologna. This shortage was further exacerbated by an unusually high demand during the Easter holiday period.
The severity of the shortage in Italy has reached a point where, at the Brindisi airport, limited fuel supplies were reportedly reserved exclusively for state and emergency rescue flights. However, the Italian aviation authority, Enac, has contested the direct link to the Strait of Hormuz for these specific shortages, attributing them instead to a surge in travel volume.
Beyond Italy, the ripple effects are prompting airlines to slash schedules. Carriers such as United and Scandinavian have already announced flight cancellations. Industry analysts suggest these moves are not only due to fuel scarcity but as well a lack of confidence that passengers will pay for the significantly more expensive tickets required to cover the new fuel costs.
How the Kerosene Shortage Affects Switzerland
In Switzerland, the immediate outlook is stable, but the window of security is narrow. Thomas Grünwald, spokesperson for the Federal Office for National Economic Supply (BWL), stated that the supply of all mineral oil products, including kerosene, is currently guaranteed. Under the assumption that all ordered quantities arrive, Switzerland’s supply is expected to be secure until the end of April.
However, this domestic stability does not protect Swiss travelers from international disruptions. A passenger departing from Zurich may uncover the airport well-stocked, but they face the risk of being stranded in Asia or other regions where fuel availability is already failing.
The Swiss government’s confidence is contingent on a volatile geopolitical situation. Grünwald emphasized that this assessment could change rapidly due to continued hostilities in the Middle East, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and physical damage to oil infrastructure that prevents deliveries from reaching the global market.
The May Deadline and Strategic Reserves
Industry leaders and government officials are now looking toward May as the critical tipping point. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, warned that while major problems may not materialize before early May, significant disruptions to the European supply chain are possible in May and June if the war persists. O’Leary estimates that up to 25 percent of European fuel demand is exposed to this risk.
To mitigate a total collapse in aviation, the Swiss federal government has prepared emergency measures. If a severe shortage occurs, the government can authorize the release of mandatory strategic reserves (Pflichtlager). These reserves are held by private companies but are subject to federal oversight.
| Period | Risk Level | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| April | Moderate | Price volatility; Asian hub shortages |
| May | High | Predicted European supply chain disruptions |
| June | Critical | Potential depletion of short-term reserves |
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Despite these safeguards, the safety net is limited. The mandatory reserves only cover the kerosene requirements of airlines for approximately three months. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues beyond the spring, the industry may exhaust its buffers.
The situation remains a race against time. As Ryanair’s leadership noted, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened before the end of May, the most severe disruptions may be avoided. Until then, the aviation sector remains in a state of high alert, balancing the need to maintain flight schedules against a dwindling and expensive fuel supply.
The next critical checkpoint will be the end-of-April supply review by the BWL, which will determine if the Swiss government must initiate intervening in the private fuel markets to prevent grounded flights.
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