2023-10-25 16:31:24
Sugarcane crushing in the first half of October recorded growth of 17.64%, compared to the same period in the last cycle. 32.77 million tons were processed against 27.85 million. In the 23/24 harvest, crushing reached 525.99 million, compared to 459.48 million tons recorded in the same period in the 22/23 cycle – an increase of 14.47%.
Despite the increase in crushing recorded, it is known that the rate of processing decreased when compared to the previous fortnight, this is a function of the higher rainfall that hit the harvesting regions during the period. We keep on our radar that the challenge of surpassing the mark of 605 million tons, registered in the 2020/2021 harvest, requires an extension of the period of activity of the production units and minimally adequate harvesting conditions in the rainier months to come.
In the fortnight, the crushing delay in relation to this reference reached 12.87 million tons, increasing in relation to the previous fortnight. Disaggregating this value, we have that the state of São Paulo is 16.30 million tons behind, while other states in the Center-South are 3.43 million tons above the reference.
Regarding agricultural productivity, data from the Sugarcane Technology Center for the month of September recorded an agricultural yield of 83.2 tons per hectare harvested – an increase of 21.3% compared to 2022. In the current agricultural cycle, the indicator reaches 91.1 ton/ha (+22.3%).
In the first half of October, 261 production units operated in the Center-South region, 244 units processing sugarcane, eight companies that manufacture ethanol from corn and nine flex plants. In the same period, in the 22/23 harvest, there were 242 production units in operation.
Regarding the quality of the raw material, the level of Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR) recorded in the first half of October was 149.57 kg per ton of sugar cane, against 144.04 kg per ton in harvest 22 /23 – positive variation of 3.84%. In the accumulated result for the harvest, the indicator shows a value of 140.70 kg of ATR per ton (-0.30%).
Sugar and ethanol production
Sugar production in the first half of October totaled 2.25 million tons. This quantity, when compared to that recorded in the 22/23 harvest of 1.84 million tons, represents an increase of 21.98%. In the accumulated since April 1st, the production of the sweetener totals 34.86 million tons, against 28.19 million tons in the previous cycle (+23.65%).
In the first fifteen days of October, 1.77 billion liters (27.82%) of ethanol were manufactured by units in the Center-South. Of the total volume produced, hydrated ethanol reached 1.04 billion liters (+54.12%), while anhydrous ethanol production totaled 729.94 million liters (+2.76%). In the accumulated period since the beginning of the current agricultural cycle until October 16, the production of biofuel totals 25.21 billion liters (+10.00%), of which 14.86 billion are hydrated ethanol (+8.97%) and 10 .35 billion anhydrous (+11.53%).
Of the total ethanol production recorded in the first half of October, 16% came from corn, whose production was 282.22 million liters this year, compared to 174.74 million liters in the same period of the 22/23 cycle – an increase of 61.51%. In total since the beginning of the harvest, corn ethanol production reached 3.27 billion liters – an increase of 45.50% compared to the same period last year.
Ethanol sales
In the first half of October, ethanol sales totaled 1.26 billion liters, which represents an increase of 4.63% compared to the same period in the 22/23 harvest. The volume of anhydrous ethanol sold in the period was 438.05 million liters – a drop of 8.52% – while hydrated ethanol registered sales of 825.72 million liters – a growth of 13.27%.
In the domestic market, sales of hydrated ethanol began in October totaling 782.01 million liters – a variation of 15.95% compared to last year. Resale price data published by the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) for the week ending 10/21 indicate that in cities corresponding to 75% of national fuel consumption, hydrated ethanol has presented attractive parities. In the state of São Paulo this percentage reaches 100% of consumption. Regarding sales of anhydrous ethanol, the volume sold was 435.96 million liters, which represents a negative variation of 4.49%.
In the 23/24 harvest, ethanol sales total 16.59 billion liters, which represents an increase of 2.87%. Hydrous comprises a volume of sales of 9.67 billion liters (+1.49%), while anhydrous 6.92 billion (+4.86%).
CBios Market
B3 data recorded up to October 20th indicates the issuance of 26.21 million CBios in 2023. The ANP confirmed, last week, that only 90.4% of the decarbonization target established for the year 2022 was duly retired within the established deadline. There were 50 agents who defaulted on the commitment established by the Policy, of which 43 completely avoided the responsibility of retiring a single title.
This situation is even more embarrassing if we remember that there was a nine-month increase in the deadline for acquiring CBios, that the available supply exceeded the target by a considerable amount and that there are distributors whose retirement during the period already corresponds to the target for next year. . Lack of commitment to regulation should result in sanctions against the regulated agent, as described in Decree No. 9,888 of June 27, 2019.
From now on, the focus turns to the target for the year 2023, the deadline for achievement of which will end on March 31, 2024. For the year in question, the established target is 37.47 million CBios, which should be added to the portion not met, or legitimately postponed, of the 2022 target. Thus, totaling 41 million CBios.
Considering the entire universe of credits registered with B3, whether held by the issuer or by the obligated and non-obligated party, the amount currently available already represents 94% of the target set for 2023 – that is, 35.2 million credits. In possession of the obligated party of the RenovaBio program there are around 21.40 million decarbonization credits – of which 6.5 million have already been retired. This value considers the obligated party’s transit stock in 2021 added to the credits acquired in 2022 and 2023, to date, subtracting the target for the year 2022.
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