The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) continues to demonstrate remarkable electoral success across the country, gaining ground in both urban and rural areas. Since 2023, the party has secured 42 additional seats in cantonal parliamentary elections – more than any other Swiss political force. This surge in support, even in traditionally left-leaning cities like Zurich and Lausanne, signals a significant shift in the Swiss political landscape and raises questions about the party’s trajectory heading into the 2027 national elections. The SVP’s ability to consistently mobilize voters and capitalize on key issues is proving to be a formidable advantage.
Whereas the SVP excels in parliamentary elections, securing executive positions remains a challenge. Majoritarian elections, where a candidate needs to win an absolute majority, continue to be a stumbling block. This was recently demonstrated in Obwalden, where the SVP lost a seat in the cantonal government despite achieving the highest number of seats in the parliament. This disconnect between parliamentary strength and executive power highlights a persistent hurdle for the party, requiring a nuanced approach to future campaigns.
A Consistent Strategy in the Cantons
The SVP’s success isn’t accidental. The party has focused on a grassroots strategy, building strong organizations at the cantonal and local levels. Cantons like Obwalden and Nidwalden, where the SVP now holds the most seats, exemplify this trend. The party is effectively challenging the center-right parties, like the Centre (Die Mitte), in their traditional strongholds and solidifying its position as the dominant force in cantonal parliaments. Currently, the SVP holds the most seats in twelve of Switzerland’s cantons. The Centre controls seven, while the FDP (Liberals) hold five, primarily in the French-speaking regions. The Social Democratic Party (SP) only leads in Basel-Stadt.
“Without the hard work in the cantons and communities, our successes wouldn’t be possible,” stated SVP National Councillor Manuel Strupler, who also serves as the party’s campaign manager. He emphasized, however, that complacency is not an option. Strupler noted that recent votes, particularly on issues like individual taxation, have shown that left-leaning voters in urban areas are becoming more effectively mobilized. “We must ensure that we better leverage our strong support, especially among the rural population, and improve our mobilization efforts,” he said.
This focus extends to the upcoming national elections in 2027. Strupler expressed confidence that the upcoming vote on the SVP’s initiative against a Switzerland of 10 million inhabitants on June 14th, and the ongoing debate surrounding relations with the European Union, will keep key issues of security, freedom, independence, and immigration at the forefront of the political agenda. “These core themes resonate with the people,” he asserted.
Key Moments on the Horizon
Lukas Golder, co-director of the gfs.bern institute, observes that the SVP has meticulously organized its campaigns at the local level. By proactively setting the agenda and initiating key debates, the party consistently keeps its opponents on the defensive. However, Golder cautions that the SVP’s path to continued success is not guaranteed. “The vote on the ‘Halbierungsinitiative’ (initiative to halve asylum processing times) showed that the party can miscalculate,” he said. According to a report in the Aargauer Zeitung, the SVP underestimated opposition to the initiative.
Several key events between now and the federal elections could significantly impact the SVP’s momentum. The cantonal elections in Bern at the end of March will serve as a crucial indicator. A strong performance in Bern would provide a significant boost, while a setback could dampen the party’s enthusiasm. The outcome of the vote on June 14th will also be pivotal.
If the SVP successfully navigates these challenges and, as currently appears likely, gains further traction in the French-speaking regions of Switzerland, its dominance could become nearly insurmountable, according to Golder. “Then, in 2027, they could even break the 30 percent barrier.” The party achieved 27.9 percent of the vote in the 2023 elections.
The SVP’s rise is not occurring in a vacuum. The Green Party, conversely, is facing challenges, and its support base is dwindling. This dynamic creates an opportunity for the SVP to further consolidate its position as a leading force in Swiss politics. The party’s consistent messaging around national identity, security, and economic concerns appears to be resonating with a growing segment of the electorate.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether the SVP can maintain its upward trajectory. The cantonal elections in Bern and the national vote on the initiative against a larger Switzerland will serve as important tests of the party’s strength and its ability to mobilize voters. The SVP’s success will likely hinge on its continued ability to connect with voters on issues they perceive as fundamental to the future of Switzerland.
The next significant date for observers of Swiss politics is June 14th, with the vote on the SVP’s initiative. The results will provide a clear indication of the party’s current standing and its potential for further gains in the 2027 federal elections.
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