In a dramatic turn of events,the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. Following the capture of Damascus by a coalition of rebel militias on December 8th, al-Assad has fled to Russia.
The downfall of al-Assad was orchestrated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syria’s most powerful militia group, who have been fiercely opposed to the al-Assad regime since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. HTS led the charge against the regime, ultimately culminating in President al-Assad’s removal from power after two decades in control.
The victory of HTS is widely seen as being intertwined with Israeli actions in the region.Shortly after al-Assad’s departure, Israeli forces launched an operation across the Syrian border, seizing control of buffer zones in the Golan Heights.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “I ordered [the Israeli military] yesterday to take control of the buffer zone and command positions nearby. We will not allow any enemy force to set up shop on our border.”
The question arises: Did Israel deliberately orchestrate the Syrian conflict that led to al-Assad’s downfall?
Academics offer insights into this complex situation. Dr. Yon Machmudi, a professor of history at the University of Indonesia’s Faculty of Cultural Sciences, argues that Israel’s intensive attacks on Syrian pro-Iran militias have significantly impacted al-Assad’s regime. Thes attacks benefited HTS, which from the outset aimed to overthrow al-Assad.
Dr. Machmudi states, “This support from Israel has significantly impacted the fall of Bashar al-Assad.”
However, concrete evidence proving Israel’s direct involvement in al-Assad’s ousting is lacking. Dr. Machmudi emphasizes the lack of direct communication between HTS and Israel regarding the President’s removal.Furthermore, Dr.sya’roni Rofii, an expert on Middle Eastern studies from the university of Indonesia, believes that al-assad’s fall is indirectly linked to Israel’s actions in the region. He points out that Israel’s assault on Iran and Hizballah weakened al-Assad’s main pillars of support.
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, suggests that while Israel’s actions in the region ultimately contributed to al-Assad’s downfall, they didn’t anticipate such a swift regime change.
He states, ”Obviously what Israel is doing points in that direction, but I doubt they had a strategy to do so.”
The fall of the al-Assad regime is expected to significantly alter Syria’s political landscape, particularly regarding future ties with Iran and Russia. Dr. Sya’roni believes that Syria’s political and foreign policy stance will be significantly diffrent moving forward.
While it remains unclear which direction Syria’s foreign policy will take, both Dr. Machmudi and Dr. Sya’roni acknowledge that the post-al-Assad government’s focus is currently on consolidating power after the ousting of the President.
How might the fall of al-Assad affect Israel’s security strategy in the region?
Q&A with Dr. Yon machmudi and dr. Sya’roni Rofii on the Collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime
Interviewer: In a dramatic event, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has collapsed after two decades in power, following the capture of Damascus by a coalition of rebel militias led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Dr. Machmudi, could you elaborate on how HTS played a critical role in this regime change?
Dr. Yon Machmudi: Absolutely. HTS has been a key player in opposing al-Assad’s regime since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011.Their military strategy and coordination effectively weakened the regime, leading to its ultimate downfall. HTS’s ability to capitalize on internal dissent and external pressures significantly contributed to this outcome.
Interviewer: Interesting.There is speculation surrounding Israeli involvement in this situation.Dr. Sya’roni, could you clarify the extent of Israel’s role in al-Assad’s fall?
Dr.Sya’roni Rofii: While it’s widely acknowledged that Israel’s actions have influenced the dynamics within Syria, the evidence of direct involvement in orchestrating al-Assad’s removal is limited. Israel’s focus on Iranian and Hezbollah forces has indirectly weakened al-Assad’s support system, paving the way for HTS and other militias to succeed.
Interviewer: Dr.Machmudi,many are talking about the implications of this regime change for Syria’s future. What can we expect?
Dr. Yon Machmudi: The political landscape in Syria is poised for conversion. With al-Assad gone, there will likely be shifts in foreign alliances, especially concerning Iran and russia. The new leadership will need to consolidate power and establish legitimacy, which could led to a reevaluation of foreign policy directions.
interviewer: Following the regime’s collapse,Israeli forces launched operations in the Golan Heights. Danny Citrinowicz mentioned that Israel perhaps didn’t foresee such a rapid regime change. What are your thoughts on this, Dr. Sya’roni?
dr. Sya’roni Rofii: That’s an insightful point. While Israeli operations clearly indicate their immediate military priorities, it’s uncertain if they anticipated the swift unraveling of al-Assad’s regime. The pace of these developments may have caught many by surprise, including regional players. This could lead to a recalibration of their strategy moving forward.
Interviewer: What practical advice would you offer to our readers regarding understanding the complex dynamics in the Middle East consequently of these changes?
Dr. Yon Machmudi: Remaining informed about the evolving relationships between militias, state actors, and external influences is crucial. Readers should pay attention to how HTS and other groups consolidate power after al-Assad’s departure, as this will set the tone for future political and military developments in the region.
Dr. Sya’roni Rofii: I would add that analyzing the broader implications for foreign policy is vital. Countries like Iran, Russia, and even Israel will have to reassess their strategies in light of Syria’s new political reality. Engaging with reputable sources and analysis will provide insights into the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Interviewer: Thank you,Dr. Machmudi and Dr.sya’roni, for sharing your insights on this critical moment in Syrian history.
Keywords: Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, syrian regime change, israel’s role, Middle Eastern studies, geopolitical landscape, Syrian Civil War, Syrian foreign policy.