As early voting concludes in Texas, state Republicans are confronting unusual early turnout patterns and tightening polls in key midterm contests, prompting prominent party figures to sound alarms over a potential shift in the state’s long-standing conservative dominance ahead of the November 3 election.
Sen. Ted Cruz and State Leaders Sound the Alarm on Turnout
Republican Senator Ted Cruz delivered a stark warning to voters on his podcast The Verdict
, releasing an episode on Friday where he admitted he is deeply, deeply worried
about Democrats taking back control of both the House and Senate, alongside potential losses across every statewide race in Texas.
Cruz pointed to early voting totals across the nation, stating that the Democrats are massively out-turning out the Republicans.
According to the senator, If the election were over today, if just the early votes that have been cast so far were counted, Republicans would lose massively. It would not be close. We would lose both the House and the Senate. It would be a bloodbath.
By the way, Texas is excruciatingly close. Understand, we could lose Texas. Let me repeat that: We could lose Texas. And by the way, not just the Senate race, we could lose every single statewide race in Texas — that’s how close these numbers are.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Texas Comptroller Don Huffines echoed those concerns, telling supporters that early figures favored their opponents. Right now, it is not going well. You need to know that. And you need to be scared and you need to be concerned. The early vote is not in our favor,
Huffines warned.
Democrats Cast More Early Ballots than Republicans in Texas
Data cited by campaigns and researchers shows that Texas recorded the largest share of early voting among all states at 36 percent, representing 6.76 million ballots cast. Of those, 44 percent were cast by registered Democrats, 45 percent by Republicans, and 11 percent by other parties, according to figures reported ahead of Election Day.
Republican researchers analyzing primary voting histories noted that voters who previously participated in Democratic primaries had cast approximately 70,000 more ballots than those with Republican primary voting records. Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project, described the trend as ahistorical
for a state where the GOP has traditionally enjoyed a strong early advantage among identifiable partisans.
The shift places intense scrutiny on the marquee U.S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Recent public polling reflects a tight race, with a CNN/SSRS survey placing Talarico ahead 49 percent to 43 percent, while a Texas Southern University poll showed the Democrat leading 49 percent to 47 percent. Quantus Insights positioned Paxton slightly ahead at 48.7 percent to 47.6 percent.
National Party Figures Rally Support as Election Day Approaches
Seeking to shore up conservative momentum, Vice President JD Vance traveled to North Texas on Thursday to rally supporters and urge turnout before the final hours of early voting and the November 3 general election.
Talarico has fueled his campaign with a formidable fundraising operation, collecting $64 million during the third quarter alone, according to reports from late October. Meanwhile, national fundraising appeals sent under Cruz’s name by the National Republican Senatorial Committee warned donors that the party faces an uphill battle
to counter Democratic campaign messaging on the airwaves.
Political analysts tracking the contest note that suburban diversification around Dallas, Houston, and Austin has steadily narrowed Republican margins. With Election Day set for Tuesday, November 3, both parties are watching whether traditional conservative voters who have delayed casting ballots will turn out in sufficient numbers to preserve decades of Republican control in the state.