“We don’t know who is behind this, we don’t know what the motive is, we don’t know if there is more material out there.” John Kirbyspokesman for the Pentagon, has had to publicly admit, in the last hours, that at the moment the US authorities have more questions than answers about the most important leak of classified documents since the era of WikiLeaks y Edward Snowdena decade ago.
A hundred reports classified as “secret” or “top secret” have been appearing on social networks in recent days, and include everything from maps and confidential information about the ukrainian war even political assessments in the convulsive Israel current. But, as the journalist assesses David E. Sanger in The New York Times, there is something radically different in this unauthorized dissemination of confidential material: “The data revealed is less comprehensive, but much more timely” from the point of view of the political moment, with a war like the one in Ukraine raging. In addition, it is very recent material, in some cases dating from only 40 days ago.
What documents have been leaked?
The most important package of documents concerns the ukrainian war: military maps, graphics about delivery of military equipmentunit deployments, strengths and weaknesses of the Kiev Army… In some cases, Washington’s concern is even detailed about the possibility that the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses will soon run out of ammunition and Moscow could materialize a long aspiration that it has harbored since the beginning of the conflict: the dominance of Ukrainian airspace, with the potential to substantially modify the course of the war. Estimates are also included military casualties on both sides, estimates that when they have been published on pro-Russian channels, have been modified in favor of the Kremlin, minimizing their own losses and increasing those of the enemy. However, there are other documents referring to US pressure on South Korea to supply ammunition to Ukraine or even about the possible role of the Mossad, the Israeli secret service, in the protests against Benjamin Netanyahu. In general, the documents highlight the decisive role played by Washington “daily” in the Ukrainian war in support of kyiv.
Who is the author of the leak?
At the moment, there are very few certainties regarding authorship. It is not a hack carried out by some group of hackers with ties to the Kremlin, and many of the documents have been photographed before being disseminated, leading investigators to deduce that the autor material of the leak is someone inside with access to this information. By using procedures that leave traces, such as IP addresses or dates on the images, the investigations could move quickly. Given the breadth of the issues addressed in the leaked papers, observers do not see a great political intent in the event, unlike what happened in the unauthorized broadcasts led by Julian Assange and by Edward Snowden a decade ago.
Ukraine and Russia have exchanged accusations about the autor intelectual of the event, although for the moment, everything is up in the air. However, if it is finally confirmed that the Russian secret services are responsible for the leak, it will have been a shot in the foot. “The leaks are bad for Putin, perhaps more than for us,” Douglas London, a retired CIA agent, professor at Georgetown University and author of The Recruiter, his memoirs as head of counterintelligence in South Asia. The documents “detail losses, incompetence and weaknesses that Putin wants to hide both from his own people and from his adversaries.” And to prevent all of this from being publicly exposed, Russian intelligence has been forced to disseminate “manipulated versions of their losses”, manipulations carried out “in a crude way” and “disseminated quickly without being properly examined”, the academic notes.
What are the effects of seepage, short term and long term?
The first victim, without a doubt, is the United States and its intelligence services, whose secrets are once again being aired and their credibility to process and maintain confidential material is questioned before their own allies. “It’s a terrible robbery; (Edward) Snowden and (Chelsea) Manning (author of the leaks to WikiLeaks) were the first to demonstrate how easy it is to steal and leak information on a massive scale”, which “undermines faith in our military and intelligence community,” he maintains for EL PERIÓDICO, also in a message, John Sipher, a former CIA official who for 28 years has been a member of the agency’s black-ops unit, however, the retired operative limits the damage caused by the data revealed. military summaries; the most sensitive intelligence material does not appear in this type of document; the most sensitive intelligence is transmitted in briefings and is included only in documents to which they only have access high ranking officials“, keep going.
For Ukraine, about to launch a counter-offensive against the Russian occupiers, “the timing (of the leak) is terrible,” Sipher confirms. However, the finding that the US is also spying on the allies, something that can be deduced from the leaked documents, will have a minimal impact on relations with them. “We all know that we spy on each other; a leak is embarrassing to the public, but it does not harm diplomatic relations,” says a former agent who prefers to remain anonymous.