– After July 1, a local jump in demand is possible. But it will not be the same as last autumn – against the background of news about the end of the preferential mortgage in November, – says Irina Dobrokhotova, chairman of the board of directors of BEST-Novostroy.
Firstly, then an avalanche-like stream of buyers went to sales offices in September, two months before, and now there is only a week left until the “X-hour” – and something supernatural is not observed. Secondly, most people have already satisfied the need for housing – the demand is also not endless. Finally, prices six months ago were twenty percent lower, and now, for example, investors are no longer so interested in the housing market.
Are discounts possible at first? Certainly. When there was still no news from the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum about preferential mortgages at 7% for another year, developers and banks in general made all their bets only on special offers – at least until the end of summer, or even a year.
– Options for issuing a mortgage without a down payment are being considered. Real estate professional association REPA has high hopes for its annual Black Friday (November 25). Against the background of the cancellation of the most favorable lending terms in the history of the “sale” of real estate will be very useful, – continues Irina Dobrokhotova. – According to the IT platform bnMap.pro, in Moscow a square meter in the little remaining economy class (only 600 apartments) costs an average of 183 thousand rubles, in the comfort class – 237 thousand, in business – 358 thousand. Everything that is higher will be from 740 thousand to 1.2 million rubles per “square”. We do not expect these figures to rise more than 10% by the end of the year. Mainly due to the growth in the construction readiness of new buildings, which have plentifully poured onto the market in the last 9 months. And yet, there is no longer a reason to put new projects on sale at inflated prices, so the low starting prices of the second half of 2021 will partly be able to “dilute” the prices of last year’s projects that are growing as construction progresses.
“For everyone, except for families with children, the loan will become more expensive”
“I believe that some of the buyers who do not have time to get a mortgage under the current terms of the program will have to postpone the purchase of housing after July 1,” says Maria Litinetskaya, managing partner of Metrium (a member of the CBRE partner network). – Taking into account the growth of rates by about two percent (from about 5.59% per annum to 8.12%), some clients will try to increase the size of the down payment in order to end up paying a comfortable monthly installment. Its size will increase by about 22% due to the increase in rates. However, accumulating additional funds will take time. In fact, the same conditions remain only for families with children born after July 1, 2018. For the rest, the loan will become more expensive. On the whole, the program can be considered complete for Moscow.
How can the residents of the Russian capital and St. Petersburg meet a small budget? Does it make sense to take additional credit – for example, for consumer needs?
– In Moscow, practically no one will be able to meet the new credit limit. There are single offers of studios on the market for about 4 million rubles, which, with a significant down payment, can be bought at a subsidized rate. In other cases, such a loan will not allow you to buy anything, and a more expensive consumer loan negates the benefits of a reduced rate for a small part of the amount, – says Maria Litinetskaya.
– De facto, the program for subsidizing housing loans from July 1 will cease to operate in Moscow, – agrees with his colleague General Director of the development company “SMU-6 Investments” Alexey Perlin. – In order to meet its conditions, it will be necessary to increase the size of the initial payment to at least 30%: in this case, you can count on purchasing an apartment of a small area in New Moscow. Migration of demand to more accessible territories, for example, the Moscow region, is not excluded.
The cost of an apartment could skyrocket by 15%
There are, however, exceptions that only prove the rule. “In business class and above, mortgages are quite effective at standard rates. The penetration of mortgages into these segments is constantly increasing. We can expect this trend to continue – until deposit rates in banks increase, ”says Roman Rodiontsev, director of the project consulting department at Est-a-Tet.
In the segment of economy-class apartments, increased attention is expected to apartments of small areas and affordable budgets. Clients who start taking a family mortgage will be focused on efficient layouts for a comfortable stay.
Special programs subsidized by developers will begin to gain popularity: this way they will be able to attract customers. Now there are such projects and programs, they are popular. But only those where the client really receives effective favorable conditions, and not a veiled high rate and overpayment.
– It is definitely worth talking about the continuation of the rise in prices until the end of the year, – says Roman Rodiontsev. – The rate of increase in the cost per square meter on average can be 5% per quarter (provided that there are no factors of strong influence from outside).
Apartments can show spasmodic growth. After the adoption of the bill on the status of such premises, a breakthrough of 15% is quite possible. However, it should be borne in mind that the rise in prices in this segment is already underway – in some cases on the basis of the adoption of the bill.
To maintain the balance of supply and demand, developers, together with banks, launched a number of campaigns in the spring. They provide for both a reduction in rates below the market rate and a discount for certain categories of apartments. The activity of discount companies will depend on the degree of decline in demand. If there is a noticeable and tangible downturn in the market, then to maintain their sales, developers will more often offer discounts.
It is definitely not worth waiting for a decrease in prices, says Aleksey Perlin. On the one hand, materials and fuel continue to rise in price, it was not possible to overcome the shortage of workers at the facilities. On the other hand, in conditions of high competition in the primary market, developers are forced to invest more in the development of concepts and improve the quality characteristics of their projects. “We expect that for 12 months of 2021, in aggregate, the increase in the average price per square meter according to the price lists of the developer in new buildings may be 10-12%,” the expert believes.
“In part, the rise in house prices may slow down due to the loss of investor interest”
Yana Glazunova, general director of VSN Realty, cites statistics: the average budget for transactions on new buildings in May amounted to 20.1 million rubles, which is significantly higher than the established limit of preferential mortgages in effect for Moscow until the end of June. “The shortage of offers cheaper than 8 million rubles and the new conditions of the state program will force the majority of buyers of democratic comfort-class housing to take a wait and see attitude until autumn. Many will wait for special offers and discounts that are traditional for this period. However, discounts are not as effective at keeping demand constant as special offers that developers can develop in partnership with banks. There will also be buyers who do not give up hope for price reductions. But the likelihood that we will see a reduction in prices for proposals is close to zero. Every month, the cost per square meter added several percent. We can only expect that for most projects prices will “stop” at summer levels due to a decrease in demand and changes in the conditions of the state mortgage program, ”the expert predicts.
Experts at the SRG Consulting Group are more optimistic. They say that in May 2021 compared to April, the average cost per square meter in Moscow increased by 2.2%, in St. Petersburg – by 0.67%. “If in the largest cities of Russia the cost per year increased by an average of 16.6%, then over the last month the increase was at the level of 4%. One can observe a tendency towards a slowdown in the rate of price growth. At the same time, there are no compelling reasons for a further increase in cost. The real situation with the incomes of the population, the growth of the key rate of the Central Bank against the background of the gradual saturation of supply volumes in the secondary market will lead to the fact that in the second half of the year prices will stop growing, ”the experts say.
The rise in prices may partly slow down due to the recession in the excitement from the buyers of apartments who buy them for investment purposes, believes the commercial director of the Strana Development group of companies Alexander Gutorov. However, in his opinion, people who have been planning a purchase for a long time will not postpone it for many years – they will strain to save up money for a larger down payment.
The best moment to buy an apartment is confidence in financial capabilities
We asked our experts to give recommendations to buyers taking into account the changed situation: when is it better to buy apartments, including on a preferential mortgage?
– The best moment to buy an apartment is financial opportunities. It is no secret that the share of mortgaged apartments in the secondary market is growing every year, including due to an incorrect assessment of their resources. Before deciding to purchase real estate, weigh all the circumstances and simulate the situation. This will allow avoiding many risks, – says Alexey Perlin.
There are a few rules to follow to meet your budget. First, study the terms of various government programs and proposals from banks. For example, now you can use a family mortgage, as well as get a loan at a lower rate for salary and other special categories of clients. In addition, developers, together with credit institutions, are often ready to offer special conditions for a certain pool of apartments. In addition, for the initial contribution, you can use the funds of the maternity capital, which can now be obtained for the first child.
– In my opinion, it is not advisable to take a separate consumer loan for the initial payment. This will increase the burden on the family budget. If you do not have enough funds, it is better to pay attention to options with a lower cost or refuse to purchase at all, ”says Alexey Perlin.
– When is the best time to buy an apartment? It all depends on the purpose of the purchase – for yourself or for investment, – Irina Dobrokhotova answers. – If you urgently need to live somewhere, then right now, by the way, is not the worst moment to buy an almost finished “primary”: paradoxically, all other things being equal, it is cheaper than similar projects at the start of sales. Due to the rush of demand, since the fall of 2020, new buildings entered the market at maximum prices, and those that by that time were already at the casting stage of the upper floors did not catch up with them at prices.
This is what bnMap.pro reports. The average cost per square meter of new buildings in Moscow and New Moscow at the stage of “obtaining permission for commissioning, improvement”: 249 thousand rubles. At the stage: “start of sales”: 347 thousand rubles. At the stage of “zero cycle work”: 338 thousand. However, the most expensive are the houses already put into operation – 420 thousand per square meter.
– The mortgage is bad “friends” with parallel loans, – states Irina Dobrokhotova. – For example, some are trying to take a loan for a down payment. But, getting into the credit history of the borrower, this step in most banks cuts off the path to a mortgage. If we are talking about a loan for repairs, now it is best to pay attention to apartments with ready-made decoration. Let them be more expensive than “in concrete”, but this difference will go on credit at 7-9% (like a mortgage), and not at 12-15% per annum (like a consumer loan). In addition, with the rise in prices for building materials, as in the last year, repairs on your own can be unpredictably expensive …
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