On Monday, two of the deadliest earthquakes the country has known since 1939 occurred in Turkey. Following earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 and 7.5 on the Richter scale that hit the metropolis of Gaziantep and other cities in southern Turkey, a series of aftershocks occurred that reached Damascus, severely affecting northern Syria and were well felt in Israel as well.
An expert assesses: Will the earthquake in Turkey shake Erdogan’s throne?
The winter weather, the plight of the rescue forces and the collapse of thousands of buildings and electrical and communication systems – in one of the weakest areas in Turkey whose condition was precarious from the beginning – make accessibility difficult and increase the fear for the lives of those trapped under the rubble. at a press conference he called Recep Tayyip Erdogan And in declaring a state of emergency in ten districts in the south of the country, the Turkish president stated that his government allocated 5 billion dollars for emergency aid for the Turkish rescue forces. All this alongside financial aid of 100 million dollars from the United Arab Emirates and many rescue missions sent to nearly 70 countries around the world, including a significant aid mission from Israel.
In addition, Erdogan claimed that 13 million of the country’s 85 million residents live in areas affected by the earthquake. However, senior officials at the World Health Organization reported that not only is this a much more serious crisis, but that the number of victims may reach 23 million people, which is about a quarter of the Turkish population.
Undoubtedly, this is a deadly mix between a natural disaster, a humanitarian disaster, and one of the worst economic disasters that have befallen Turkey to date, and all this during an election year and alongside the high geopolitical-security tensions currently taking place on the international level. However, it is important to clarify that this is a critical opportunity for Erdogan to leverage the situation that has arisen, as well as the scope of international aid and support for Turkey, in order to project power and leadership that will help him rake in important political capital. Valuable capital that may lead to the victory of the ruling party “Justice and Development” (AKP) in the upcoming elections and even help establish Turkey’s power and position in the international arena.
Bridging Europe and Asia and connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, Turkey is located on a highly sensitive geographic axis linking several tectonic plates and fault lines. A close look at the Turkish geological map shows that its western part, with an emphasis on the Aegean Sea, lies in a unique tectonic zone, located in the middle between the Anatolian plate, the African plate and the Eurasian plate closing in on it from all directions.
Applying a lot of pressure makes the Aegean Sea an explosive area most prone to strong earthquakes. Moreover, lying mostly on the Anatolian plate thrusting westward and subject to continental drift beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey is considered one of the most geologically and seismologically active regions in the world.
Historical observation even shows that since Turkey began to record the earthquakes that struck it, countless events took place throughout the country during which tens of thousands of people died and were injured.
The earliest recorded event occurred in 1688 in Izmir in western Turkey, during which approximately 15,000 people perished, and a deadly 7.6-magnitude earthquake that occurred in 1999 in the city of Izmit, east of Istanbul, led to the death of approximately 17,000 people and the injury of more than 40,000. Also, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 that struck in 1939 in Erzincan, in northeastern Turkey, led to the death of about 33 thousand people and the injury of about one hundred thousand people.
It is not for nothing that President Erdogan compared the deadly events and even defined the current earthquake as the most terrible disaster in Turkey in the last hundred years. All this, among other things, against the background of the economic situation alongside the internal disputes and the harsh criticisms that he receives from home and abroad. Turkey, the 19th largest economy in the world with a GDP of 720 billion dollars, is a member of the G20 forum. In addition to being a member of the NATO alliance (since 1952), Turkey is one of the largest, most important and most populous countries in the Middle East and the largest Muslim country in Europe (85 million man).
Its strategic location, as a bridge between Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, gives it great geopolitical and economic power, as it is located in one of the most important shipping, trade and international energy sources and even dominates the accessibility to the Black Sea. However, an overall observation of the Turkish government’s moves on the geopolitical level reflects a complex reality. In the last decade, Turkey has distanced itself from the US and the European Union countries; in the last year, it expresses an ambivalent position regarding the accession of Sweden and the expansion of the NATO alliance; And to this are added the tensions in the Muslim world and the disconnection that existed until recently between it and many of the countries of the Middle East, including Israel.
A wake-up call for the government
Meanwhile, the country’s economic situation is not alarming. Turkey suffers from debts amounting to approximately 180 billion dollars, from double-digit inflation, one of the highest in Europe (64% in December), from high unemployment rates and a severe devaluation of the Turkish currency. Therefore, as serious as it may be, the earthquake in Turkey is not “just” a natural disaster, but a wake-up call for the Ankara government, forcing it to deal with one of the most severe extreme situations that have occurred so far in the country.
This is a deadly combination of humanitarian disaster, political crisis and “election economy”, and this alongside great geopolitical and security tensions in the international arena. Although it is difficult to estimate the value of the economic damages of the earthquake at the present stage, it is already evident that this is the destruction and destruction of critical infrastructures, the rebuilding of which is estimated at an investment of tens of billions of dollars, if not more. All this alongside a significant damage to Turkish GDP growth, which has only begun to show signs of recovery after the Corona crisis.
If this is not enough, an overall observation of the actions of the Erdogan government shows that, ironically, the earthquake that occurred in 1999 was a trigger that accelerated his rise to power in 2002. Therefore, beyond “closing the circle”, it is already clear that the current event is a test of leadership Critical, which carries far-reaching geopolitical consequences for Turkey and for him, beyond the issue of his election for another term.
For Erdogan, this is an existential and complex challenge that is expected to become a strategic asset if he succeeds in maneuvering between managing the crisis at home, while thwarting opponents from the opposition and despite the enormous economic and social challenges – and monitoring the scope of aid and utilizing international support to grab (geo)political capital.
A closer look even makes it possible to notice that this is an opportunity for him to leverage his manipulative abilities and turn the earthquake into a publicized and populist media event in which he “stars” and “sells himself to the public” as a strong and powerful leader who cares for the peace of the public house.
Beyond that, this is a critical window of time that will allow him to renew relations and even get closer to the governments of the West, and even more so to the countries of the European Union with which he is in conflict, such as Greece, Cyprus and Sweden, as well as to tighten and expand his ties with the Arab and Gulf countries, primarily Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
His ability to juggle between the various interests, the complicated situations and the complex circumstances, is an extraordinary virtue that is unique only to him and it may be the X-factor that will help bring Turkey out of the crisis and influence its power and position in the international arena in the years to come.
The author is an expert in geopolitics and international crises