2024-04-23 15:12:26
The euro, rates, the ECB. In short, our money and our savings. It is never easy to orient yourself in the complex world of global finance and being able to interpret the monetary policy trends that direct Europe is one of the most important challenges. Which he tries to answer Donato Masciandaro, full professor of Political Economy, holder of the chair of Economics of Financial Regulation at Bocconi University in Milan, where since 2018 he has been Director of the Baffi Research Center. Masciandaro is the author of the book “The euro, rates and the ECB: the Frankfurt aviary among hawks, doves, peacocks and crows”, published by Il Sole 24 Ore. An important guide, which from Saturday 27 April until 27 May will be on newsstands available to Adige readers for only 9.90 eurosin addition to the price of the newspaper, and in bookstores at the price of 14.90 euros.
The ECB between Scylla and Charybdis: identifying the route of monetary normalization between the risk of resilient inflation and that of a latent recession, also wondering what will happen to the “green turning point” desired by President Lagarde. To understand where the ECB is going, we need to look at a strategic choice made in 2022: moving from monetary announcements to ambiguity, with the two risks that derive from it. First: increase the real costs of a disinflationary policy and the probability of recession. Second: increase political pressure on the conduct of monetary policy, questioning the independent institutional structure of the ECB. The ambiguity accentuates the possible destabilizing effects of the dialectic which in the ECB council can emerge between the supporters of more or less restrictive policies (hawks versus doves), but can also determine the emergence of opportunistic behavior (the peacocks) or disloyal behavior (the crows) by individual central bankers.
2024-04-23 15:12:26