2023-10-28 10:30:00
This happened on the other bank of the Bug in Poland, where parliamentary elections were held on October 15. In the Bielski district, the Law and Justice party received the most votes – over 28 thousand votes (50.80%), which won the parliamentary elections in the neighboring country. And the former mayor of Biała Podlaski, who repeatedly visited Brest, Dariusz Stefaniuk, gained the trust of voters and became a deputy of the Sejm.
What happened happened despite the large-scale support organized by the current city president Michal Litviniuk for his own candidate, his current deputy Matej Byczynski. President Byaloy not only called for support for his deputy from election posters, spoke about this at city events, but also openly supported Bychinsky on his Facebook page. The result, as often happens in Poland, is logical: Dariusz Stefaniuk boasts not only one of the best results in the region, but throughout Poland.
Over 29 thousand voters voted for him in electoral district No. 7 (Biała-Podlaska, Chełm, Zamość), including 8.5 thousand in his hometown. Stefanyuk’s program contains specific proposals that will serve the residents of the region and a plan to attract investment. It should be recalled that it was during his tenure that a joint cross-border road project with Brest was carried out under the auspices of the European Union. And the plans of the leaders of our cities, Dariusz Stefanyuk and Alexander Rogachuk, included many other plans in healthcare, housing and communal services and other areas.
In general, despite the victory in the elections (35.38%), it should be recognized that the era of the ruling party is ending at this stage. Approximately the same results from PiS were expected based on sociological surveys. This result is greater than that of other parties, but it is clearly not enough to gather a majority in the Seimas. PiS leaders told supporters immediately after the results were announced that they would “do whatever it takes” to stay in power. However, this is where problems arise: there is simply no one to form a coalition with. The most unexpected result in these elections was shown by PiS’s potential coalition ally, the far-right Confederation party (despite the fact that the leaders of the Confederation have repeatedly stated that they would not enter into a coalition with PiS, experts called such a scenario quite likely).
The confederation, uniting people of various views, from anarchists to monarchists, predicted a result above 14% and a place in the government, but in reality the Eurosceptics were simply defeated. They barely crossed the five percent barrier and received only 7.16%. Now even a theoretical union between PiS and the Confederation will not be enough to gain the coveted 50%.
According to most analysts, liberal parties can form their own coalition and govern the country. Civic Platform, PiS’s main opponent, received 30.7% and came in second place. The unification of the Poland 2050 and PSL – Third Way parties performed excellently in these elections, they gained 14.4%. The New Left performed slightly worse than expected, but still performed well: 8.61%. It is noteworthy that the current government was supported in the elections by residents of the eastern voivodeships, while the opposition was supported by the center and all others in western Poland.
The leaders of all three parties already announced last Tuesday that they were ready to form a coalition. Donald Tusk (leader of the Civic Platform) is likely to become prime minister and rule the country. However, not everything is so simple here for the opposition, and the most interesting things in Polish politics are yet to come.
Another important victory for the opposition was the failure of PiS in the referendum, which took place in parallel with the elections. Despite the record turnout (almost 75%), the Poles did not want to vote in the referendum: only 40.91% cast their vote, which means that the referendum did not take place.
Some political scientists in Poland believe that PiS will try to win over someone other than the Confederation by any means and concessions. However, the chances of success are negligible – voters of other parties would perceive such an alliance as a betrayal.
Expectations from the new government in Poland are very high. Poles voted for three liberal parties precisely to separate PiS from power and roll back their conservative reforms – the Constitutional Court, the right to abortion, the role of the church in the life of the state and relations with Brussels, which have only gotten worse and worse in recent years. However, the liberal parties are divided into three for a reason: they are all united by dissatisfaction with PiS’s policies, but they all have different ideas about how these reforms should be rolled back.
Another obstacle to the new coalition may be created by the current president, Andrzej Duda. Duda comes from PiS and will clearly try to put a spoke in the wheels of the new government. In Poland, the president has a kind of veto power: a law passed through the Sejm requires the president’s signature to take effect. However, the president may simply not sign it. Theoretically, the Seimas can override a veto if two-thirds of the deputies vote for the law. However, the new government may not have such a majority.
During the 8 years of their rule, PiS tried to leave their influence in other branches of government. The Constitutional Court of Poland, a stumbling block in the dispute between Brussels and Warsaw, can also become a kind of limiter to slow down liberal reforms in the country. However, despite the theoretical difficulties for the new government, many still believe that positive changes will occur. The election results could be an impetus for the entire EU structure. The specter of right-wing forces and Eurosceptics has been haunting Europe for a long time, and in Poland they suffered a crushing defeat.
If it is possible to assemble a coalition led by Tusk, then there will definitely be a thaw in relations between Warsaw and Brussels. Tusk, the former President of the European Council, is precisely a pro-European politician. And everyone expects that Brussels will meet the new government halfway: for example, it will unfreeze funds for Poland from European funds, which were frozen due to disputes around the Constitutional Court. And these funds will definitely help the new government revitalize the Polish economy.
There is also a lot of optimism in Poland that the new government will improve the situation of the media in the country. PiS allocated huge amounts of money to controlled newspapers, TV channels and radio. Sometimes they even spoke out in support of the authorities in churches during services. The new coalition could greatly liberalize the journalistic climate in the country.
Due to the fact that it is not yet completely clear what the Polish government will ultimately look like, it is difficult to predict how relations with Ukraine will develop. And in general, the topic of Ukraine and the war faded into the background during these elections; parties and candidates primarily focused on internal problems.
A positive moment for Ukraine in relations with the new government may be that these relations will be more predictable. Most likely, Poland will continue to be a transport hub for arms supplies to Ukraine. And over a million Ukrainians who have settled in Poland will continue to count on social assistance and support. What awaits Belarusian-Polish relations in this regard?
Minsk previously expressed cautious hopes that in the event of a change of power in Poland, the escalation of tension between the two states would at least stop growing. At the same time, an analysis of the current situation shows that Belarusian-Polish relations are unlikely to be close to normalization, since neither Warsaw’s Western partners, nor the bulk of the current Polish elite, nor opponents of the Belarusian government, who settled after 2020, are interested in this. in Poland.
It should be noted that Belarus has repeatedly offered Warsaw to sit down at the negotiating table, but has invariably been refused. According to Belarusian experts, this was one of the reasons that the Belarusian authorities decided to increase the country’s defense capability, including through the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of the republic.
At the same time, despite the clearly aggressive rhetoric from Warsaw and the recent ongoing buildup of Poland’s military power in close proximity to the Belarusian border, Minsk still believes that changes in relations between the two countries with the coming to power of a new political force are possible. In particular, Alexander Lukashenko stated this shortly before the Polish elections, according to whom “there is always hope.”
“It’s clear how these people behave and will behave, but how others will behave – there is some hope that they will still take their heads in their hands and work to improve relations. By the way, Polish diplomats, including those who work with us, also adhere to this position. They, we must give them credit, are great, they understand what is happening. But they also gave up, waiting for elections and saying: “If new forces come to power, then there is hope that there will be some kind of reset.” One can hope so. But you see: we don’t hope for anything, we are preparing to the maximum for the worst case scenario,” said the Belarusian leader.
Lukashenko justified his vision of the situation by the fact that the current President of Poland Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki are “completely controlled by Washington.” At the same time, in Minsk they believe that Donald Tusk is pro-European and will not “run, as the “pissers” do, after the Americans.” However, despite this attitude towards the representatives of the “Civil Platform” in Minsk, they still do not have any special illusions about the future of Belarusian-Polish relations.
Statements by the Belarusian leader that we need to live in peace and harmony with our neighbors, that the notorious “Pole’s card”, among the owners of which there are many acquaintances and supporters of the president, does not at all prevent them from loving their country. It is no secret that the vast majority of owners of this card received it to simplify the possibility of obtaining a visa. Meanwhile, the Belarusian authorities are pursuing a similar goal, allowing visa-free entry into the republic for citizens of neighboring countries, including Poland. People should meet, communicate, and maybe the sprouts of “public diplomacy” will help politicians find more balanced steps.
True, I have heard that with the change of power in Poland, one can expect a decrease in interest in the “Belarusian issue”, since the new government’s main tasks will be solving internal problems, as well as restoring shaken relations with EU countries. Under these conditions, one can hardly seriously count on fundamental changes in relations between Minsk and Warsaw, especially since when making serious foreign policy decisions, any political force in Poland will continue to look to the United States and its European partners.
Vladimir MURAVSKY
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