2024-08-15 12:17:52
In 1988, an active participant in the Artsakh liberation movement, in 1990, a member of the first parliament of Armenia from the Armenian Nationalist Party, in 1994-98, chairman of the RA Central Bank, lecturer, economist Bagrat Asatryan, in an extensive interview given to the Azeri Caliber.Az periodical, considered the establishment of neighborly relations “the most powerful in the region” state” with Turkey, as well as with Azerbaijan. According to him, the future of Armenia is the establishment of neighborly relations with its neighbors, and “we are doomed to this”.
The full interview is presented below.
Recently, the issue of regulating Armenian-Turkish relations has become relevant. What kind of prospects do you think they have?
Personally, I believe in the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, although I understand that the events of last year have distanced us from those possibilities. The future of Armenia is the establishment of neighborly relations, we are doomed to that. It remains to be hoped that the political elites of our countries will not only understand this, but also take active steps in that direction. Of course, a lot depends on Turkey, which is the most powerful state in the region.
Last year, Armenia officially banned the import of Turkish goods. How did it affect the ordinary Armenian consumer? Were local industries or imports from other countries able to replace Turkish products?
I have already expressed my position in this regard. The bans are primarily emotions, from which specific people suffer, both Armenian consumers and Turkish producers. Moreover, they lose the opportunity to establish relations, after all, trade is perhaps the only thread that connects our peoples. As for the scale, they are not large: 5 percent of imports, which is filled quite quickly in the conditions of Armenia’s open economy.
Is it politically or economically beneficial for Armenia to regulate relations with Turkey?
First of all, of course, political. I am sure that this is the key to the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan. And the economic benefits can already follow it. I personally believe that Turkey, with its dynamically developing economy, can significantly influence the development of the entire region.
You will probably agree that the growth of the Armenian economy is impossible without lifting the embargo. Baku offers Yerevan to open transport communication channels, restore economic ties on the basis of mutual recognition of each other’s borders and recognition of territorial integrity. How do you see the solution to this issue?
My principle position is that an open economy cannot develop under such restrictions. Let me remind you that I spoke from these positions during the internal political debates that raged on the issue of establishing peace and normalizing relations with Azerbaijan. As for the restoration of relations with Azerbaijan, the opening of communications, it is necessary to realize that the atmosphere of mistrust that has formed between us is quite a difficult path, which, I am sure, we must pass for the sake of the future of our peoples. It is impossible to cancel the neighborhood, and in order to restore the neighborhood, it is necessary to overcome mistrust. The mechanism is direct negotiations at different levels and the establishment of diplomatic relations. Not only will is needed here, but much more. So far they have found the strength to deepen the confrontation, but now much more strength and awareness is needed that the alternative is great suffering and the results are the benefits of third parties and unscrupulous intermediaries.
Can you imagine yourself that Armenians can go to Russia through Azerbaijan, as before 1988, and Azerbaijanis to Nakhichevan?
I not only imagine, but also consider it possible. I have a similar experience. 1991-93 I led the delegation of Armenia in the negotiations with Nakhichevan and at least we managed to restrain emotions and avoid serious complications in the conditions of the deepening of the conflict in Karabakh. The leaders had political will, direct participation, many meetings and detailed discussions on the issues that arose. I think that the new leaders of our countries will have enough common sense, will and courage.
Armenia’s foreign debt continues to increase. Along with this, Yerevan and Moksva agreed on the supply of new weapons. Most likely, it will be with a loan. You headed the Central Bank of Armenia, therefore, most likely, you will be able to assume how Armenia will be able to pay those debts.
The national debt of Armenia is inevitable. The development of economies like Armenia is impossible without loans, including foreign ones. The whole problem is how these funds will be used, whether they will condition the growth of the country’s GDP, and therefore also the growth of the citizens’ well-being, or whether it will be passed on to the next generations as a yoke. In this regard, the state debt reaching 9 billion is, of course, a lot and exceeds the limit set by the legislation, and the annual expenses incurred for its maintenance are also high. However, the real problem lies in insufficient GDP level and insufficient growth rate. Armenia’s debt is not large, but the volume of GDP is small. And defense costs, regardless of their sources, are a necessity, which are caused by external reasons. That is why, including as a representative of the most peaceful profession, I am in favor of the restoration of neighborly relations as soon as possible, under the conditions of which a significant part of these funds will be directed to the social and cultural development of our peoples in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. With respect and hope for a more peaceful future.