2024-04-18 18:23:23
At the end of last year, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, expressed hope that Armenia’s economy will show a 7% growth as a result of the year. It turned out that this was the case when hopes exceeded all expectations. In February 2023, the Statistical Committee of Armenia summarized the results of 2022, and according to the published data, the GDP in Armenia increased by 12.6% in one year, showing the best result in the last 15 years.
The most noticeable growth was recorded in such industries as banks and other financial organizations, IT and telecommunications, transport, tourism, public catering services and construction. At the same time, compared to the banking and construction sectors, industry is developing very slowly, and industry is the main factor of economic growth.
During the years of Soviet power, modern industry was created in Armenia, more than 1500 large industrial facilities were built. The chemical industry, non-ferrous metallurgy, a number of branches of non-metallic engineering, the products of which were almost 100% exported outside the republic (tool making, electrical engineering, radio electronics, machine building), the textile and knitting industry, viticulture, fruit growing and winemaking based on them, developed. brandy and canning industry. The share of industry in Armenia’s GDP reached 61%, while today it is only 20%. The volume of exports should not be a concern, according to the recently presented data on state budget replenishment, the revenue share has increased by only 20%, and of the five major taxpayers, only Grand Tabaco produces finished products, the rest either import/export raw materials. or provide services.
During the Soviet years, the development of Armenia’s industry was largely based on a powerful energy base. The basis of Armenia’s energy system was Yerevan HPP, Dzora HPP, Sevan-Hrazdan power system, Armenian NPP, Hrazdan, Yerevan and Kirovakan HPPs.
Despite the economic decline after the collapse of the USSR, Armenia still has a raw material base, developed human resources, and scientific potential that can be transformed into industrial growth. However, in order to develop the industrial potential, first of all, it is necessary to make sure that the country will have powerful, stable and independent energy production for many years to come. When an entrepreneur develops his business, it is important for him to have a clear idea of all types of expenses in the long term, so that he can organize his business strategy and invest his funds correctly. If the cost of electricity is constantly fluctuating, then there can be no question of any forecast or strategy. Germany, for example, is now forced to close energy-intensive enterprises, because there is no confidence in the price of energy resources in the near and medium term. But this is not happening in France, and it is thanks to nuclear energy, which makes up 70% of the country’s energy balance.
In 2036, the life of the Armenian NPP will end in Armenia, which provides around 30% of the country’s electricity production. The question of replacing decommissioned capacity already arises today. The necessity of atomic energy in Armenia’s energy portfolio does not give rise to doubt, but today, discussions about the power of the atomic block regularly appear in the information space. However, even if we leave aside all the questions regarding the existing technologies of small modular reactors considered as an alternative to the existing Armenian NPP in order to achieve the strategic goals of industrial development and ensure economic growth, the advantages of a high-capacity nuclear power plant over small reactors are obvious.
According to Rosatom’s preliminary calculations, the construction of two powerful nuclear power plants gives an impetus to the growth of the country’s economy, attracting other branches, distribution of orders, taxation, use of labor potential, etc. Taking into account the international experience of the construction of nuclear power plants, it is estimated that the construction of a nuclear power plant, for example, according to the Rosatom project, which includes 2 JJER-1200 reactors, can bring to the budget about 19 billion USD in the form of tax revenues for all years of the plant’s operation.
It should not be forgotten that the construction of nuclear power plants usually leads to the creation of industries with a higher level of added value in the country, as it provides guaranteed electricity supply to such industries at predictable prices. It is possible to create an industrial-type free economic zone on the basis of the nuclear power plant, which will become the center of attraction of investments in the country.
As for the export potential that Armenia will have with the construction of a high-energy block, according to preliminary calculations, the income obtained from the export of 50% of the electricity supplied abroad from 2 units at current tariffs can reach 1 billion dollars per year. The additional income from exports, in turn, can provide a powerful impetus to the development of the economy of the country and the entire region.