2024-04-29 19:53:53
“Luys” Foundation analyzed the 2023 The report on the implementation of the RA state budget in the first half of the year.
“Due to the factors that have a positive impact on the economy of the Republic of Armenia, formed as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a high increase in the indicator of economic activity was recorded in the Republic of Armenia. However, it is obvious that the rate of growth is slowing down significantly. In particular, in 2023 In June, the indicator of economic activity decreased twice compared to May. Economic growth has also slowed down. growth rate in 2023 in the second quarter compared to the first quarter it decreased by 3.0 percentage points and amounted to 9.1%, and in 2023 the growth rate of the first half was 10.5%, which is 2.1 percentage points lower than in 2022. from the annual index. Taking into account the aforementioned, as well as certain trends recorded recently, it is not excluded that a significant slowdown in growth rates will be recorded in the near future. This point of view is also shared by a number of international organizations, as well as the RA Central Bank, according to whose forecasts, compared to last year’s high economic growth, this year’s growth is expected to be significantly more modest, with various estimates of 4.5-7.5%.
RA state budget for 2023 in the first half of the year, it had a surplus of 134.3 billion drams, against the planned deficit of 125.5 billion drams. By the way, in the same period last year, the budget surplus was smaller by 53.1 billion drams. 2023 in the first half of the year, the implementation of the RA state budget deviated from the plan by about 259.8 billion drams. The main reason for this is fiscal deficit, which means that the government collects taxes from the economy but does not spend them, thus reducing economic activity. Meanwhile, in the conditions of the current sharp growth of the domestic demand, the expenses aimed at the implementation of the measures aimed at increasing the supply should be significantly increased.
The continuous underperformance of state budget expenditures is worrying. The underperformance compared to the plan has increased both in absolute terms and in percentage terms compared to the same period of the previous year. Moreover, both current and capital expenses were underpaid. The largest underperformance of capital expenditures was recorded in the line of programs implemented under the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia.
The low performance indicators show that the problem of management and implementation of capital projects remains unresolved.
2023 In case of maintaining the underperformance trends recorded in the first half of the year, the capital expenditures will also be underachieved on an annual basis, leaving 2023. the sharp increase in state budget expenditures is simply “unrealized wishful thinking”.