COLUMN | It has been three years since the Netherlands had to deal with the corona crisis. On the advice of the Outbreak Management Team (OMT), the cabinet has scrapped the latest corona measures. According to the OMT, corona has become a dormant part of our society and large-scale testing and generic measures are no longer necessary. It’s only a matter of time before terms like test– in injection lanes, one and a half meter society, reproduction number R in lockdowns be definitively forgotten.
The Dutch economy has also miraculously recovered from the initial contraction of 3.8 percent in 2020. Our economy is now almost 6 percent larger than just before the corona crisis. This means that the economy has not only more than made up for the losses of the crisis, but has even almost returned to its pre-crisis trend growth path (see this study).
That’s special; especially since in the aftermath of the pandemic we also had to deal with severely disrupted international value chains, a war in Europe and an energy crisis. There are, however, considerable differences between sectors. For example, ‘other business services’, which includes employment agencies, for example, is still well below the pre-corona trend. But this is offset by sectors such as mechanical engineering and specialist business services, which have actually grown faster due to the pandemic.
In short, corona is behind us and the economy has recovered wonderfully well. With all those crises behind you, you can even ask yourself whether things are not going too well and whether this is a healthy situation. The Dutch economy is currently producing more than what can be sustained given the size of the working population and production capacity
And that’s where it’s a bit uncomfortable as far as I’m concerned. Corona was a macabre, stressful and miserable period, in which many people lost their loved ones or health. A period that also led to loneliness and gloom for many people. But at the same time, the crisis on some fronts actually caused fewer stress, because our fast-paced society was forced to take a breather.
By being forced to sit at home, many people started eating healthier, exercising more and also spending more time with family and friends. The pressure on the environment also decreased significantly during corona: CO₂ emissions fell by no less than 8.8 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the previous year. This was perhaps the time to tackle the pricing and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions more energetically and structurally than has been done until now. In short, Corona was a period of forced reconsideration and reflection. And with that an opportunity to check whether what we are all doing together is what we all actually want.
Well, maybe we missed that chance. Households are currently spending almost 7 percent more than before the corona crisis. The overheated economy not only leads to further inflation, but also has all kinds of other negative consequences. Absence due to illness is approaching the dubious record from 2000, on Tuesdays and Thursdays we are packed together in the office as usual and last week there was the busiest morning rush hour ever, with 1100 kilometers of traffic jams.
Mathijs Bouman wrote a nice column in 2018 entitled: I miss the crisis. I don’t miss the corona crisis itself, but I do think it’s a pity that we didn’t seize the opportunity to change our behavior in a sustainable way.