BANKPLASSEN (Nettavisen): The oil fund is going so fast, but what happens in the future?
also read
The oil fund earned 2.222 billion last year
– The oil fund could fall by 40 per cent, as we have in some of our analyses, says the manager himself, Nicolai Tangen, to Nettavisen.
– Then it bangs!
– The probability of that happening is relatively low, but it is present, says the 57-year-old.
– What is the most uncertain thing now in 2024?
– The most uncertain thing is what we know nothing about, the unexpected that surprises us. It sounds completely idiotic, really, but that’s simply what it is: Things we don’t expect. We didn’t expect the financial crisis that had a big effect, didn’t expect covid…
– Really scared
The seaweed fires up:
– Those are the things there – the ones that you haven’t analyzed and calculated on. What scares you and makes you really scared: Then the stock market crashes, and then the fund goes down.
– What do you think about the danger of a major war in the Middle East, Tangen?
– We have no view of the likelihood of a war. We see that there are geopolitical tensions that are unfortunate and we do not know what the consequences will be.
– The fund is going so fast. How high can it get?
– We’ll see about that, chuckles Tangen – and quickly adds that they focus on the “downside”:
– We look at the downside and then the upside usually takes care of itself.
Fear of stock collapse
In the oil fund’s stress test presented on Tuesday, three main features are pointed out:
– The world can become more divided; there is a lot of debt in the world which can lead to a crisis and the stock market, which has risen a lot, can fall. Then we are talking about a 30 per cent, up to 40 per cent drop in value for the fund, says second-in-command of the fund, Trond Grande, to Nettavisen.
– Which nerves do you feel?
– It is our job to be a little nervous. Nothing is risk-free, we take lots of risks – so then we have to try and understand the risks. We are professionally concerned.
– Gives the most happiness
– What are the safest investments you can make?
– The investment that gives you the most satisfaction and happiness is investing in experiences with friends and family, answers Tangen.
– So everyone who has money to spare in expensive times should spend their money, you?
– Yes absolutely!
The oil fund’s return ended at 16.1 per cent, corresponding to NOK 2,222 billion.
– Despite high inflation and geopolitical unrest, the stock market in 2023 was very strong, after a weak year in 2022. Technology stocks in particular had a very good return, says Tangen in a press release.
– Just reading my master’s thesis!
The only thing Tangen does not fear is that his own master’s thesis will be scrutinized.
– I think I’m actually in a pretty good position. I posted it on LinkedIn Saturdayso everyone can read my master’s thesis there if they want to, Tangen says here: