The road to the primaries of the Venezuelan opposition, scheduled for October 22, already has its humorous chapter. The consulting firm Datanálisis has realized that the impersonator and teller of jokes Benjamin Rausseobetter known as Er Conde del Guácharo, has a 37% vote intention and is currently the best positioned as the anti-madurismo presidential candidate. The far right Maria Corina Machado follows in the preferences. Behind her is the ex-candidate Henrique Caprilesdefeated by Hugo Chavez y Nicolas Maduroin this case by a slim margin.
Rausseo had barely hinted at his intention to join the internal election of the opponents of the Miraflores Palace before the poll was released. At first, both he and Machado seem to settle as recipients of the “vote punishment“from a society tired of the political alternatives of recent years. “If I can be useful to Venezuela with everything I have studied… I have the ability to summon the best men and women to make a proposal to the country” , assured the comedian, and the first thing he proposed is that the university cease to be public.
“I’m going to send Chávez to operate on one eye in each buttock so he can see the shit he’s doing“, said Er Conde del Guácharo in 2006, when his jokes about the Bolivarian commander circulated by word of mouth. “You have to order him to do a stool test to find out what kind of shit he is.” Chávez returned attention by inviting him to appear at the elections.”Hey, Conde, I’m telling you from the bottom of my heart, kid, go ahead and make this spicy.” sarcastic and said that “his candidates” in the upcoming primaries, not without clouds, are Rausseo and Machado.”I ask for respect for them,” he said in With the deck given, the television program of the number two madurismo, Diosdado Cabello. “I hope Capriles debates with the Count.”
The former governor of the state of Miranda had publicly asked the comedian what he did during all these years of mobilizations and protests against the government. “When people were in the streets fighting for democracy, where was he?” With regard to the high-sounding Machado, he considered that the consideration of him by the citizens will be ephemeral. “Don’t get carried away by the smoke screens”.
The question of boredom
Louis Vincent Leoneconomist and president of Datanálisis estimated that the current popularity of Er Conde del Guácharo only reflects “the satiety of the people”. For León, it is evident that a segment of society demands an ‘outsider’. He warned, however, that it is still premature to presage that this voting intention will be maintained throughout the campaign with a view to primaries in which dozens of applicants will register. If the trend favorable to Rausseo or Machado herself, years ago a defender of a US military interventionwould be facing “a risk” for the traditional political system.
The challenges
Venezuela had a economic growth of 18 points in 2022, after a systematic collapse in GDP since 2013 that left the country in shambles. The rise came hand in hand with an improvement in oil activity and dollarization. Maduro declared the crisis over and predicted a horizon of good fortune. However, some analysts consider the forecast hasty, among other reasons because the United States sanctions that should be left without effect to the beat of the negotiations between the Government and the opposition in Mexico to channel the internal conflict, with a view to the next elections.
Under the first understandings between the parties, Venezuela should receive part of the money confiscated since 2019 to attend, with the supervision of the UN, the enormous pending social needs. These resources can arrive more slowly than expected and weaken the patience of the most vulnerable citizens, historic voters of the ruling party. Until now, the main flow of money received by the State comes from the agreements that have been signed with the oil company Chevron, with the approval of the White House.
In this context, primaries have been launched in which the opposition, dispersed and erratic for so many years, must show Venezuelans that it is capable of uniting behind the winning candidate and overcoming its deep rancor. “They can be a catapult to awaken the enthusiasm political”, said in this regard the political scientist, Piero Trepiccione. “You have to wait six to eight weeks for a name to rebound among the opposition candidates. A lot of water needs to pass under the bridge,” warned the consultant. The anti-madurismo has an advantage that it has not been able to take advantage of since 2015, when it swept the parliamentary elections. The re-election of the president is not as simple as imagined.