2023-08-16 14:05:16
The ADAC is expecting significant traffic jams on Germany’s autobahns for the coming weekend – “returnees on holiday only make progress at a snail’s pace,” warns the car club in its regular traffic jam forecast. At the same time, the ADAC fuel experts are reporting another increase in fuel prices. The price for Super E10 has already exceeded the 1.90 euro mark at many petrol stations during the course of the day. On average, premium fuel recently cost 1.858 euros per liter – that was 1.5 cents more than the week before. Diesel increased in price by 2 cents to 1.769 euros per liter.
This means that fuel is not yet as expensive as it was at times last year. But compared to the situation this year up to and including June, there was a noticeable price increase again. The ADAC calls the current fuel prices “significantly excessive”.
“Of course we are currently seeing high crude oil prices and high demand due to travel,” said ADAC petrol specialist Christian Laberer of the FAZ: “Nevertheless, fuel prices are still too high – the mineral oil companies definitely have leeway for price reductions.”
Crude oil expensive despite weak economy
However, the price of crude oil has also increased noticeably in recent months. Most recently, the North Sea variety Brent was quoted at around 85 dollars per barrel (159 liter barrel). That is nowhere near as much as after the beginning of the Ukraine war last year. But still significantly more than oil cost at this time of year in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
In July in particular there was a veritable jump in prices. Brent oil prices rose 13 percent in the month alone. That was the strongest price increase in a year and a half, as Frank Schallenberger, oil specialist at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), emphasizes. “The reason for this increase is certainly to be found in the organization of oil-exporting countries and their allies, OPEC plus for short,” says the oil expert.
If it weren’t for the severe supply cuts by oil countries, one would be more likely to be talking about $60 oil prices than $80+ right now, he says. Since the end of 2022, the oil cartel has announced supply cuts of more than five million barrels a day – even though global oil demand is not that sluggish despite the sluggish economy.
“After all, oil consumption is likely to increase by around 2 million barrels a day in the current year to a new record level of 102 million barrels a day,” said Schallenberger. Cutbacks on the supply side and an increase in demand pointed to a supply deficit. After July and August, Saudi Arabia wants to continue its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels a day in September. “I therefore expect a supply deficit on the oil market of around 1.5 million barrels a day for the current quarter,” said Schallenberger. “This means that the relatively high oil prices will probably continue to accompany us for a while.”
According to the internet platform Heizoel24, heating oil, which of course is used less in summer, has also become more expensive again – from less than 90 euros at the end of June to 104.03 euros per 100 liters most recently.
Effects on the inflation rate in Germany
The more expensive oil and petrol should also have an impact on the inflation rate. Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, calculates: “The recent increase in the price of fuel and heating oil has made the cost of living in Germany by almost 0.3 percent more expensive. Therefore, the inflation rate in August is only likely to fall from 6.2 to an estimated 6.1 percent.” The economist believes that without the recent increase in energy prices, the German inflation rate in August would probably have fallen well below the 6 percent mark.
Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 15 Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 55 Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 20
However, the recent increase in energy prices should not prevent the inflation rate in Germany from falling significantly in the coming months, believes the economist. First, electricity and natural gas prices are now rising at a slower rate. Second, let food inflation ease. And thirdly, in September the temporary introduction of the 9-euro ticket and the tank discount in the summer of last year differs from the previous year’s comparison. From a purely technical point of view, this means that inflation will be lower for the year. Krämer says: “The inflation rate could fall to 4 percent by the end of the year.”
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