2023-07-10 17:00:12
the summer of 2022 was the hottest ever recorded in Europe and was characterized by an intense series of heat waves that broke temperature records, drought and forest fires.
Although Eurostat -the European statistical office- had already reported an unusually high excess mortality for those dates, until now the fraction of mortality had not been quantified. attributable to heatas reported by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), in the presentation of a recent study, in collaboration with the French National Institute for Health and Medicine Research (Inserm).
Temperature and mortality data were analyzed for the period 2015-2022 in 35 European countries, whose total population represents more than 543 million people.
In this analysis, led by ISGlobal —a center supported by Fundación la Caixa— and published in the magazine Nature Medicineit is calculated that between May 30 and September 4, 2022 occurred 61,672 deaths attributable to heat.
The research team obtained temperature and mortality data for the period 2015-2022 in 823 regions of 35 European countries, whose total population represents more than 543 million people. These data were used to estimate epidemiological models and predict mortality attributable to temperatures for each region and week of the summer period.
He summer 2022 It was a season without truce in terms of heat, in the words of the authors themselves. Records show that temperatures were above average during every week of the summer period.
According to the death rate due to heat, the country that tops the list is Italy, with 295 deaths per million, followed by Greece, Spain and Portugal.
The biggest thermal anomaly it was recorded during the summer heat from mid-July to mid-August. According to the researchers, this coincidence magnified heat mortality, causing 38,881 deaths between July 11 and August 14. Within that period of just over a month there was an intense pan-european heat wavebetween July 18 and 24, to which a total of 11,637 deaths are attributed.
Most affected countries
In absolute terms, the country with highest number of deaths attributable to heat throughout the summer of 2022 was Italiawith a total of 18,010 deaths, followed by spain (with 11,324 deaths) and Germany (con 8 173).
If the data is sorted based on the mortality rate by heat, the country that tops the list is Italiawith 295 deaths per million, followed by Greece (280), spain (237) y Portugal (211). The European average was estimated at 114 deaths per million.
The authors provide ‘infograms’ with the figures of heat-related mortality in summer 2022 for the 35 countries analyzed, including variations between women and men, as well as the Mortality attributable to heat in Spainwith details of each province.
On the other hand, if only the increase in temperaturethe country that registered a higher value was Francewith +2.43 ºC above the average values of the period 1991-2020, followed by Swiss (+2.30 C), Italia (+2.28 C), Hungary (+2,13 ºC) y spain (+2.11 ºC).
63% higher mortality in women
The work included an analysis by age and sex, showing a very marked increase of mortality in the older age groups and above all in the women. Thus, it is estimated that there were 4,822 deaths among those under 65 years of age, 9,226 deaths between 65 and 79 years of age, and 36,848 among those over 79 years of age.
Regarding the distinction by sex, the data suggest that mortality early attributable to heat was a 63% higher in women than in men, with a total of 35,406 premature deaths (145 deaths per million), compared to the 21,667 estimated in men (93 deaths per million).
This greater vulnerability of women to heat is observed in the population as a whole and, especially, in over 80 years, where the mortality rate is 27% higher than that of men. On the other hand, the male mortality rate is 41% higher in those under 65 years of age, and 13% higher between 65 and 79 years of age.
Lessons from the 2003 heat wave
To date, the summer with the highest mortality records in Europe was that of the year 2003in which an excess mortality of more than 70,000 deaths.
“The summer of 2003 was an exceptionally rare event, even when taking into account the anthropogenic warming observed up to then. This exceptional nature revealed the lack of prevention plans and the fragility of health systems to deal with weather-related emergencies, something that to some extent was tried to be corrected in later years,” he explains. Joan Ballester Claramuntfirst author of the study and ISGlobal researcher, who has a grant from the European Research Council.
“On the other hand, the temperatures registered in the summer of 2022 cannot be considered exceptional, in the sense that they could have foreseen following the temperature series of the previous years, and that show that during the last decade warming has accelerated”, indica Ballester.
Europe is the continent that is experiencing the fastest warming
“The fact that in the summer of 2022 more than 61,600 people died from heat in Europe despite the fact that, unlike in 2003, many countries already had active prevention plans, suggests that the adaptation strategies that we currently have may still be insufficient”, he maintains. Hisham Achebakco-author and researcher at Inserm and ISGlobal.
“The acceleration of warming observed in the last ten years underlines the urgent need to substantially reassess and strengthen prevention plans, paying special attention to the differences between European countries and regions, as well as the age and sex gaps, which currently they mark the differences in vulnerability to heat”, adds Achebak.
Europa is the continent that is experiencing the fastest warming, according to a recent reports from the UN. Since the 1980s, the temperature in Europe has risen twice the global average temperature.
The estimates made by the team suggest that, in the absence of an effective adaptive response, the continent will face an average of more than 68,000 premature deaths every summer by 2030 and more than 94,000 by 2040.
The study has been carried out in the context of the project EARLY-ADAPTfunded by the European Research Council, and in order to study how populations are adapting to the challenges of public health triggered by climate change.
Heat deaths in Europe
The ten European countries with the highest mortality rate (deaths per million) attributable to heat in summer 2022.
Sex
Age group
Country
Total
Women
Men
0-64
65-79
80+
Italia
295
379
211
21
244
3 290
Greece
280
367
153
20
198
2 977
spain
237
295
181
21
222
3 273
Portugal
211
222
166
24
219
2 036
Bulgaria
176
182
157
20
384
2 271
Croatia
172
213
104
10
244
2 209
Malta
147
166
160
34
189
1 895
Lithuania
128
99
138
34
199
1 334
Estonia
123
157
61
26
167
885
Romania
122
110
135
30
273
1 400
Europa
114
145
93
16
160
1 684
The ten European countries with the highest number of deaths attributable to heat in summer 2022.
Country
Total
Women
Men
Italia
18 010
11 917
6 268
spain
11 324
7 190
4 250
Germany
8 173
3 925
2 771
France
4 807
2 424
2 584
United Kingdom
3 469
Not available
Not available
Greece
3 092
2 076
822
Romania
2 455
1 130
1 323
Portugal
2 212
1 227
828
Bulgaria
1 277
678
556
Poland
763
559
259
Europa
61 672
35 406
21 667
Reference:
Ballester, J. et al. “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022”. Nature Medicine (2023)
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