2023-10-16 21:33:00
Former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk celebrates the election results Jacek Szydlowski Forum! EUROPAPRESS
The opposition alliance formed by three parties achieves an absolute majority in the Chamber
16 oct 2023 . Updated at 9:33 p.m.
In Poland, the exit polls were right, and about 24 hours after the polling stations closed, the official results confirmed that The opposition alliance formed by three parties and led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk will have an absolute majority in Parliament. The ruling party, Law and Justice, with a nationalist and extreme right ideology, had the consolation of having been the party with the most votes for the third consecutive time, an unprecedented milestone in Polish politics.
Taking into account the diametrically opposite nature of the programs of both blocs in contention, it is expected that the polls will result in a real political turnaround in Poland. The opposition had warned that a new victory for Law and Justice could accentuate its authoritarianism and put an end to the democratic system. In fact, numerous analysts had defined these elections as the most important since the advent of democracy in 1989.
With 85% scrutinized, Law and Justice obtained 36% of the votes, a notable decrease compared to the 43% it received in 2019. Behind, the Civic Coalition, Tusk’s party, a liberal center-right, obtained 29% of the votes, and its Third Way (center) allies, a 14%, and Lewica (Left), 8%. Konfederacja, an anti-system and xenophobic party, the only one that could be a parliamentary partner of Law and Justice, fell far short of pre-electoral expectations with barely 7% of the votes.
Pending official results, a definitive distribution of seats is still not available. However, the voting pattern is similar to that of the Ipsos exit poll, which gave the three opposition parties a comfortable majority of votes. 248 deputies of the 460 of the Sejm or Polish Parliament. Therefore, although the final count may not be so favorable for the opposition, it seems unlikely that it will fall below the threshold of 230 seats.
One of the keys to the opposition’s victory has been its ability to mobilize a group of traditionally abstentionist voters. Participation rose to 72%, a historical record, and which represents an increase of more than 11 points compared to 2019, and 20 points compared to 2015.
In the capital, the majority of voters on Sunday expressed opinions contrary to PiS. Their strategy is based on division, on accusing those who do not think like them of being traitors or bad Poles. In recent years, politics has divided families, something that has never happened before, lamented Agnieszka, a teacher who opted for the Civic Coalition. In fact, One of the axes of the PiS campaign was to treat Tusk as a traitor and an agent of Germany.
Despite his success, Tusk, a probable future prime minister, does not have an easy road ahead. The three opposition parties have a quite different ideology, and divergences may soon emerge. Furthermore, the institutions dominated by PiS will not make it easy for them. I do not rule out early elections, says Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex.
Despite his defeat, The Prime Minister, Tadeusz Morawiecki, has defended that it is his responsibility to try to form a Government. Over the next few days, the country’s president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS supporter, will have to decide whether to listen to Morawiecki or opt for Tusk, the only one capable of forging a majority government.
Filed in: Donald Tusk Poland Xenophobia Germany Nationalism
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