Two years have passed since the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House on September 15, 2020. Is it correct to say that they carried with them too great hopes, not to mention illusions, regarding the weakening of Iran in the face of a strong regional alliance? There is no doubt that this is a defining and groundbreaking event in the history of Israeli-Arab relations.
The establishment of formal relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and the subsequent accession of Sudan and Morocco, constitute a dramatic change since the “cold peace” with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) and a significant milestone in the map of relations in the Middle East. The expansion of interests and the deepening of ties between the countries entail great value and enormous potential, both in view of the expected accession of Saudi Arabia and Oman, and against the background of the position of the United States and the relations of the superpowers.
It is already clear that the Abraham agreements have a tremendous impact on the economic, security and geopolitical space, as well as on the cooperation in the fields of trade, tourism and culture between the parties. All of these reflect the dynamics that have been taking place since then throughout the region and beyond. A clear example of this is the enormous increase in economic activity and the volume of trade and investment between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which is estimated at 1.4 billion dollars since 2021.
However, from a broad geopolitical and security perspective, the reality is quite different. It is true that the Abraham Accords are blowing winds of change along with unprecedented awakening and economic growth in a new Middle East, but – and this is a great sadness – the joint alliance that was created does not stop the strengthening of Iran and its regional influence. On the contrary, the perception of Iran as a common enemy is fading away.
The signing of the Abraham Accords, mediated by US President Donald Trump and encouraged by Mohammed bin Salman, the heir to the Saudi throne, led to dynamic and far-reaching changes in the map of relations in the Middle East, as well as in Israel’s strategic position. The process, which began in September 2020 with the signing of the peace agreement alongside the establishment Diplomatic relations and full normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates continued with the accession of Bahrain. In addition, Sudan and Morocco signed normalization agreements with Israel in December 2020 and January 2021.
Undoubtedly, this is a far-reaching change, at a time when Arab countries that do not share a historical past (war) and a common territorial border with Israel are following it and promoting bilateral cooperation, which is expected to expand and even deepen. Furthermore, the normalization of relations between them shattered the taboo that was anchored in the Arab-Saudi peace initiative (2002), which conditioned it on the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
However, and despite the respectable momentum created, recently the voices in Israel calling for a re-arrangement have increased in view of the gaps that have been discovered between the various interests of the partnership and the agreements. All this in view of the change that has taken place in their ambivalent approach, especially of the partners from the Gulf, towards Iran.
The rapprochement with Iran
In the discussions surrounding the signing of the Abraham Accords, as expected, a lot of attention is directed to the leading countries, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, as well as to the economic achievements and the volume of trade between them (such as imports from Israel in 2021 amounting to 885 million dollars), as well as to the huge future business potential, partly in view of the opening of an investment fund Emirati in Israel to the extent of 10 billion dollars.
But such a view misses the profound processes that have shaped the Middle East in recent decades. Those who look at the map of the region will notice a number of significant events, processes and crises that took place, chief among them the “Arab Spring” (2011), which changed and shaped the map of relations and the balance of power in the Muslim world. The crisis sharpened the differences between the Sunni camp and the moderate Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and the Shiite camp and the radical countries led by Iran, and also paved the way for the strengthening of the Gulf countries and their position in the geopolitical arena.
All of these form the basis for the growth of the peace agreements and the various strategic interests of the partners in it. This is led by the United Arab Emirates, which is pushing for broad and full cooperation with Israel and the expansion of normalization agreements with other countries, but at the same time as the dialogue it and other countries are conducting with Iran.
Abraham’s agreements are a huge turning point in the Muslim world. For, in parallel with the rapprochement with Israel, in the last two years the borders between the Sunni camp and the Shia camp have been shaken, and the alliances in each camp are changing. In other words, the peace agreements that were born against the background of reducing the presence and involvement of the US in the Middle East and whose main goal was to create a strong security front that would curb the strengthening of Iran and its regional influence – led to the opposite trends. A clear example of this is the many reports published recently regarding direct contacts between Iran and Its arch-rivals, primarily Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
In addition, there is a trend of gradual reconciliation between the various Muslim countries regardless of their Sunni/Shia origin, such as the emerging ties between countries with which ties have been severed or who were considered rivals, such as Turkey-Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar-Egypt and Turkey-Iran (despite their struggle over the areas of control and the influence in Syria).
If that’s not enough, recent publications present a similar picture regarding cracks that have opened between the Gulf countries in view of the differences of opinion between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This is, among other things, in view of the strengthening of the regional position of the latter. Therefore, on the face of it, it seems that the hopes of establishing a common, stable and strong front against Iran are nothing more than illusions.
Even worse, the combination of the withdrawal of the US from the region and the distancing of the signing of the Iranian nuclear agreement in view of the delays in the negotiations between Tehran and the powers, and this when at the same time there is a rapprochement between Iran and countries that were previously considered its historical enemies – strengthens Iran. And so, when it is closer than ever to achieving nuclear capability and when the balance of power against it is weakening, Iran’s political position and the scope of its regional influence are getting stronger.
future dividends
In view of the fundamental change that has taken place in Iran’s geopolitical position despite the efforts to weaken it, Israel must expand and deepen its ties and the scope of its joint projects with the moderate Arab countries, primarily the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as with Egypt and Jordan. This is while emphasizing the “fruits of peace” and the benefits inherent in regional peace agreements, and on the other hand presenting in a negative light the meanings derived from Iran’s strengthening (nuclear and missiles, alongside cyber and terrorist attacks) and their effect on security stability.
In addition, in view of the reduction of the USA’s presence and military involvement in the region, Israel must find additional strategic partners in Europe and/or Asia, such as India, in order to establish deterrence and increase the front against the Iranian enemy. Moreover, looking at the Abraham Accords from a long-term geopolitical perspective Shows that despite undermining the perception of Iran as a common enemy, Israel’s association with the Gulf states in itself carries great value.
Beyond the advantages inherent in expanding trade and economic ties with the new partners, there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is currently a critical axis in the newly created geopolitical space in the international arena, which needs to be preserved and strengthened. Maintaining this geopolitical axis may issue important dividends in the future, which will be reflected, among other things, in the guarantee for maintaining international stability and security.
The author is an expert on geopolitics and international crises