Vladimir Putin’s Calculated Waiting and Western Aid Strain Threatens Ukraine’s War Effort
The year began with high expectations for Ukrainian troops as they planned a counteroffensive against Russia, but it ended in disappointment on the battlefield and anxiety about the future of Western aid for Ukraine’s war effort.
Amidst this, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a waiting game, two years into a costly miscalculation by the Kremlin that has seen Russia occupy about one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. With the front line barely budging this year, political deliberations in Western countries that have supported Ukraine’s struggle are increasingly strained over billions in financial aid.
Putin is wagering that Western support for Ukraine will gradually crumble, eroded by war fatigue, political divisions, and other global demands. He hopes to keep Ukraine in limbo and compel it to accept a bad deal to end the war, and his repressive grip on Russia was locked in when he announced his plans for reelection in March.
While Western sanctions are biting, they have not crippled the Russian economy. The shifting sentiment in Western countries could benefit Putin, as he seeks to maintain control over Ukraine while increasing the number of Russian troops.
Russia has endured massive losses of troops and equipment, but Putin has secured large supplies of ammunition and is increasing defense spending by around 25% in 2024-2026, ordering the military to increase the number of troops by nearly 170,000 to more than 1.3 million.
For Ukraine, the challenge lies in resourcing another offensive operation, with its troops being motivated but exhausted, according to analysts. President Zelenskyy has tirelessly lobbied Western leaders to keep the aid coming, aware that it is his country’s lifeline.
Despite this, support for Kyiv shows signs of fraying. U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposal for $50 billion in additional aid for Ukraine is stuck in a divided Senate. Ukraine scored a diplomatic victory when the European Union granted it accelerated talks on joining the bloc, but the process could take years, and the denial of a significant aid package from the EU was frustrating for Kyiv.
As support for Ukraine shows signs of strain and the future of Western aid remains uncertain, the war in Ukraine enters a critical phase. The expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive were unrealistic, leading to disappointment on the battlefield. Putin’s calculated waiting game and Western aid strain threaten Ukraine’s war effort, raising uncomfortable questions about the best way forward for the conflict.