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Although the lack of water is an alarm signal, it is not yet possible to predict how bad next summer will be. “The situation today is unfavorable. But only when the soil is still very dry at the end of April is it likely that the drought situation will persist,” says climate researcher Andreas Marx. A look back at the year 2021 shows that it doesn’t have to be quite so blatant. “In spring the soil was bone dry,” says Marx. But when there were no heat waves in the summer and it rained enough, no damage was caused.