2023-11-24 19:40:54
It was nothing more than a corpse dead and buried, but the atrocious violence unleashed by the attack of Hamas on the south ofIsrael last October 7 and the subsequent Israeli military assault on Gaza has put the old woman back into orbit formula of the two states per resolve the conflict in between Palestinians i Israelis. L’the state in which it just doesn’t work. It does not bring peace or security to either side. An indisputable conclusion that has made the United Statesthe European unionthe china and the Arab countries claim the opening of one political process when the war ends based on the formula of peace for territories. We just need to know if the option remains viable, given the intractable reality on the ground, and if there is something more to the international rhetoric than the same empty words and failed strategies that have made the two states a permanent failure.
The well-intentioned rhetoric is there. Spain wants to organize one peace conference when the bombs go off. Brussel·les insists that it is the only solution, to which “we must dedicate all our political energy”, in the words of Josep Borrell. And, from Washington, the mantra is even more insistent. Lately it has been repeated daily for a purely domestic matter: the re-election ofJoe Biden could depend on itafter his carte blanche to Israel has angered many Democratic voters. “The two-state solution it is the only way to ensure long-term security for Israelis and Palestinians,” Biden wrote in a recent op-ed in The Washington Post. “This crisis has made it more imperative than ever.”
He international consensus it is largely shared by Israelis and Palestinians who still advocate a moderately just solution to the conflict, even if they do not necessarily believe in its feasibility. The alternative, one binational state with equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians, has never gained traction. “The Palestinians should give up theirs right to self-determination and the Israelis to live in one Jewish and democratic state. It is madness and the population would not accept it”, says the former Israeli Minister of Justice, Yossi Beilinwho was the leader of the left-wing party worth it and one of the negotiators in the bankrupts peace processes.
It does not escape anyone’s notice that the two states will only be able to gain momentum if the external pressure it is massive and there is a desire to penalize actions that contravene the objectives of the agreement. “It could only work if it is not repeated same manual for the last 30 years», says the Palestinian political commentator Nour Odeh. “To create a political horizon, the world must make it clear that theIsraeli occupation i l’expansion of settlementsand that the political process cannot be extended indefinitely”, he adds in an interview.
Problematic leadership on both sides
But first, the current leaders of both sides would have to disappear, each for different reasons. the palestinian Mahmud Abbàswhich governs a West Bank as an autocrat for 19 years, because he has lost all legitimacy among his population, no matter how white horse of Europe and the USA for his unbreakable commitment to peace. On the contrary that Hamas, which is currently fighting for its survival in Gaza. Neither Israel nor the West will ever accept that the Islamists are a valid interlocutor for their recourse to the terrorism and because a part of its organizational chart does not accept a Jewish State even within a centimeter of historical Palestine.
Eventually he would have to leave Benjamin Netanyahu, who has dedicated his political career to torpedo a Palestinian statefragmenting its territory, fueling its internal divisions and promoting Hamas to serve as a pretext for theIsraeli immobilism. Or to be more precise, its continuum expansionism. “The Netanyahu government will fall when the war ends,” says Beilin, repeating the consensus opinion in Israel. “Either through elections or a vote of no confidence. And if he doesn’t leave, people will throw him out with street protests.” As viable alternatives capable of embracing a peace process, the main opposition leaders point out: Yair Lapid i Benny Gantzboth currently in the unity government.
So far the theoretically ‘easiest’ part of the mess: the political will, both internal and external, essential to start speaking. The hardest part is the fine print of the agreement and the conditions on the ground to be able to implement it. And this is where it all gets a little more complicated, although after three decades of multiple failed initiatives, the outlines of what the deal should look like are pretty clear. “Historically, it has been the most difficult Jerusalem and the luck of the Palestinian refugeesbut now the big problem is the massive Israeli presence in the West Bank”, says Beilin in a telephone interview.
The hellish reality on the ground
He 1993when they were signed Oslo Accords, the first attempt at a two-state solution, there were 90,000 Jewish settlers. Today there is 500.000distributed in approx 350 settlements, some little more than a handful of caravans and others real cities, however great they all are illegal under international law. “Most settlements are strategically located to break the continuity of the Palestinian territory and prevent a State from being established there”, says the activist Dror Etkesone of the Israelis who best knows the fabric of theIsraeli occupation in the West Bank. “The entire Israeli system is geared towards support colonizationso Israel would have to reinvent itself if it wants to end the project.”
To think that this whole structure could be dismantled is little less than illusory. Colonists today control large areas within thearmy and the israeli political power, are heavily armed and they do not aspire to share the territory, but to empty it of Palestinians. And although the latter accepted that the elders settlement blocks remain under Israeli sovereignty, they would continue to remain so at least 130.000 colons within the borders of the hypothetical Palestinian State. The most radical, to be exact.
Skepticism among public opinion
But if there is political will, nothing is technically impossible. Two years ago Yossi Beilin presented together with the Palestinian negotiator Hiba Husseini and their respective teams a detailed proposal to create two confederate states with Jerusalem as the shared capital. “The main point of the confederation is that the colonists who want it could stay in Palestine as permanent residents and maintaining Israeli citizenship. The same number of Palestinians could stay in Israel under similar conditions,” explains Beilin.
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Of the four experts consulted, the historic leader of the Israeli anti-occupation left is the only one who is somewhat optimistic about the current conditions. The rest are as skeptical of the two states as public opinion on both sides. Weeks before the start of the war, only the 35% of Israelis they believed possible live in peace with a Palestinian State, while only one 24% of Palestinians supported this formula, 35 points less than in 2012.
“Only if there were sanctions against Israel and he had to be held accountable for his actions, the pendulum could swing, but none of that will happen in the current political climate”, he says Diana Butto, who was spokesperson for the OAP and legal advisor in the negotiation processes. “Unless there is coercive intervention by the international community, the two sides will continue to kill each other because there is too much hatred and religious fundamentalism. The conflict is not improving, but on the contrary”, affirms the Israeli Dror Etkes.
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