President Donald Trump and Iranian leadership share a rare point of agreement seven months into their grinding conflict: neither side believes the U.S. election calendar is driving their decisions to end the war, according to reporting from Washington.
Broad American dissatisfaction with the war, fueled by soaring fuel costs and persistent inflation resulting from the hostilities, casts a heavy shadow over the Nov. 3 election that will determine whether Trump’s party keeps control of Congress. U.S. economic sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil continue to cause profound shocks for Tehran’s economy. Yet Iranian officials remain insistent that there will be no deal until the U.S. lifts the blockade and delivers sanctions relief. Trump, meanwhile, is vacillating between dispatching more military resources to the region and threatening new strikes.
Trump Shifts War Goals Toward Economic Pressure
Trump’s stated war goals have shifted significantly over the course of the conflict. He has moved away from maximalist demands for unconditional surrender by the theocratic government toward a focus on economic pressure, containing Tehran’s nuclear program, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. More than a week into a 32-day campaign blitz for Republican candidates, Trump is telling voters he is winning the war while warning he is ready to finish it if Iran fails to capitulate.
The conflict has thoroughly ruined Iran’s economy, decimated its air force and navy, and claimed the lives of key political and military leaders during its opening weeks. Yet Iran has shown resilience in the face of Trump repeatedly appearing on the cusp of ordering major new strikes before backing down at the last moment. Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, noted that after months of grinding war, an American election season is not fundamentally changing Iran’s approach toward a U.S. leader they view as an unreliable narrator.
Iranian leadership remains concerned that the U.S., especially in the Trump era, will not be compliant to any deal even if Trump signs it himself, according to Karimi.
Political Pressures on Republican Candidates in Competitive Races
Trump’s defiant messaging is difficult for Republican candidates to embrace as they address voters frustrated by elevated gas costs and food prices. Most Americans, 69%, say the war has not been worth fighting, according to a poll published by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, up slightly from 64% in July. Only 28% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling Iran.
Some Republicans in competitive races have sought distance from Trump on the conflict. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers stated that the war with Iran needs to end and end quickly. In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is in a competitive Senate race, said Iowans should not have to foot the bill for the war. Seven House Republicans also voted in favor of a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump’s war of choice.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, explained that trying to stand apart from Trump on Iran is nearly impossible for Republicans so close to Election Day.
It's an enormous weight on Republicans. Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.
Indirect Negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Iranian officials insist that the U.S. must remove its blockade prior to any agreement, as a condition for Iran to stop attacking international oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and secretary of Iran’s top security body, recently told Iranian state television that Iran has the upper hand, declaring that it is time to end talking and negotiations.
Ship Traffic Remains Below Prewar Levels
Ship traffic remains well below prewar levels.