O Japan must be ready to deal with any changes that Donald Trump may require in its security treaty with the United States if he is re-elected president, said former national security adviser John Bolton. He argues that Trump has a “lack of appreciation for what American alliances do.”
“I think a lot of what you can predict about a second Trump term was evident in his first term,” Bolton told “Nikkei Asia” in a recent online interview.
“Now, most of the attention is focused on NATO and whether he would withdraw from NATOwhich I think I would do,” said Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security advisorfrom April 2018 until September 2019, when he left the post due to political differences with the president.
But the return of Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, to the White House would also have implications for Japan, argued Bolton, a former US ambassador to the United Nations.
“Get ready for Trump to say, ‘I want the treaty changed so that Japan is also obligated to defend the United States,'” Bolton said.
Article 5 of the security treaty of the two nations obliges the United States to defender Japan in the event of an attack on Japanese territory. O Japan is not obliged to assist the United States in an armed conflict on American territory or other territory beyond its own borders.
This makes the US-Japan alliance different from NATO, where the principle of collective defense means that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. The mutual defense treaty between the United States and South Korea calls for both the sides to respond to “an armed attack in the Pacific area,” in addition to an attack on the forces of either country on Korean territory.
“Trump showed some indication when I was in office that Japan and South Korea were not carrying their fair share of the burden of maintaining U.S. bases in both countries,” Bolton said.
“But Trump saw it simply as a real estate deal,” according to Bolton. “He didn’t see it in the context of alliance general.”
Leaving NATO would be a “catastrophic mistake” for the United States, Bolton said.
Donald Trump e Shinzo Abe — Foto: Andrew Harnik / Associated Press
It’s Trump question alliances of the United States with Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations, these partners may worry whether the concept of expanded nuclear deterrence – the assumption that the United States will use all of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its allies – applies to them, the former Trump adviser argued.
“This would lead, in Japan, South Korea and elsewhere, to the question: ‘Should we have our own nuclear weapons? If we’re not under America’s nuclear umbrella, maybe we need our own,'” Bolton said.
“Now, for me, I think it is a mistake for Japan to go after nuclear weapons,” he added. “I think this would lead to a more complicated and more dangerous situation in Northeast Asia.”
After Trump won the 2016 presidential election, one of the first foreign leaders to call him before becoming president was then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
“I can tell you from experience that he and the Japanese diplomats, and his senior advisors, cabinet members, were constantly in contact with the Trump administrationbecause they wanted to try to influence him and those who advised him on what Japan should do, what their concerns were with North Korea, with China, on all issues, to try to stay as close as possible to Trump and keep the alliance strong“, according to Bolton.
“And I think it would make a lot of sense for the current Japanese government to follow Abe’s pattern, which I think was quite successful,” Bolton also said.
The trade of United States with China continues to be one of the main campaign issues for Trump, who said he would impose a tariff of more than 60% on Chinese imports if he were re-elected. Bolton called it “braggadocio” and said it was unlikely to last.
“I think he’s going to do what he thinks is best for Donald Trump. It’s less a tariff policy than a advertising policy for Trump himself”
Bolton said he doesn’t know how Trump would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan — and that Trump might not be sure either.
“This is the kind of weakness that if you show China, they will take advantage of it,” Bolton said. “So I’m very, very worried about what might happen there.“
The former national security adviser said he considered Trump’s meetings with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un were a “mistake”. He also had a prediction: “Kim Jong-un will be one of the first people to call Trump if he is re-elected.”
“This time, Trump will go to Pyongyang if we are not careful,” Bolton said. “So that’s why the Japan and South Korea should really work together on this, to try to explain to Trump why he needs to be careful, in the face of a North Korea that is much more threatening today than it was four years ago.”