President Donald Trump faces severe political pressure ahead of November’s midterms as U.S. gas averages reach $4.36 per gallon and diesel breaches $6, while expanding Middle East conflicts and refinery bottlenecks complicate efforts to lower consumer fuel prices.
Updated October 19, 2026
President Donald Trump returned to office promising to lower the cost of living for Americans. At the start of his second term, the price of gasoline in the U.S. was, on average, around $3 a gallon. It has since climbed past $4, reaching a national average of $4.36 per gallon according to AAA. At this time last year, that regular gas average stood at $3.09. Gas prices represent a major sticking point for Americans grappling with an affordability crisis, posing a direct threat to Republicans seeking to hold both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.
Refineries Face Bottlenecks as Diesel Costs Surge
Fuel availability has tightened due to processing constraints at refineries along with strikes against energy facilities in Russia and the Middle East. While most everyday drivers fill up with regular gasoline, diesel powers commercial trucks, farm equipment, trains, and construction gear. When diesel becomes expensive, transportation costs rise across the entire economy, keeping inflation under pressure even if crude oil prices stabilize.
Early Monday, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, traded about 2% lower at around $103 a barrel. That figure sits more than 40% above its level at the start of the Iran war, though it represents a slight decline from where it stood a month ago after prices surged past $100 a barrel in early September. The retail price of diesel continues to drive up the cost of many goods and services.
Trump Suspends Russian Sanctions to Lower Fuel Prices
Trump has sought to assure voters that affordability pressures will ease before November. Speaking at the White House on Friday, he recalled seeing gasoline prices below $2 a gallon in Iowa before the U.S. and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran in February.
Trump suspended fuel export sanctions on Russia this week to bring more diesel to the market and lower prices. Hours later, Ukraine struck a Russian oil depot. On Sunday morning, Trump posted an ENERGY CEASEFIRE
announcement between Russia and Ukraine on Truth Social. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that while he supports such a ceasefire, the deal was entirely news to him, noting that a Russian drone struck a power plant in Kyiv on Sunday.
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Update (October 14, 2026)
According to CNBC, the consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.7%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Surging energy costs drove the increase, with the energy index jumping 5.2% and gasoline prices soaring 9.1%. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% annually. Food prices remained flat, while shelter prices increased 0.4% and used car and truck prices jumped 0.7%.
Following the report, stock market futures turned negative and bond yields rose sharply. Futures traders raised the odds of a rate hike at the October 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about 54%, with odds for a rate rise before the end of the year increasing to better than 96%.
Update (October 19, 2026)
According to WRAL, North Carolina’s gas tax suspension led to the state having the lowest average gas prices in the country as of October 18, 2026. In Raleigh, unleaded gas averaged $3.62 per gallon, down 35 cents from a week prior, while diesel fell to $5.62, 28 cents lower. However, drivers like Hayden Epperson called prices “still high,” noting a gallon still costs “half a tank to get to work.” Farmers also cited diesel price pressures, with Lisa Penny stating bulk purchases strained agricultural pricing.
Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan explained the tax suspension took weeks to impact prices due to existing fuel inventories. He warned that oil prices remain volatile amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, saying “it’s impossible to predict” future trends. The gas tax is set to resume December 1, according to WRAL.