Iran on the Brink: Protests, Regime Change, and the Shadow of the “Venezuela Model”
Table of Contents
As protests escalate throughout Iran, the future of the Islamic Republic hangs in the balance, prompting discussions about potential regime change and the possible application of a controversial U.S. strategy reminiscent of the situation in Venezuela.
The ongoing demonstrations, fueled by economic stagnation, regional setbacks, and pressure from the United States and Israel, are testing the resilience of a government with a long history of suppressing dissent. While analysts remain cautious about predicting an immediate collapse, the structural weaknesses eroding popular support are creating a volatile situation, one that could unfold differently than hoped by opposition leaders operating from abroad.
A Regime Cornered: The Shifting Dynamics in Tehran
According to Arash Azizi, a research fellow at Yale University specializing in Iranian politics, the current wave of protests differs significantly from previous uprisings. “The most important difference…is that the regime is now much more cornered,” he stated. This vulnerability stems from a complex interplay of internal divisions and external pressures.
Iran’s political landscape is fractured between principlists and reformists, with President Masoud Peseschkian, elected last August, representing the latter faction. Peseschkian campaigned on promises of economic improvement and greater social inclusion following the death of his hardline predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, in May. However, his efforts have been hampered by stalled negotiations for a new nuclear deal – derailed, in part, by targeted attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump during the “Twelve Day War” with Israel last year.
The perceived weakness of the government has ignited a power struggle among various actors, including clerics, politicians, and the powerful military apparatus encompassing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces, known as Artesh. With the 89-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, lacking a clear successor, behind-the-scenes maneuvering is intensifying.
The Opposition Takes Shape: Pahlavi and the MeK
The unrest has also galvanized opposition forces in exile, most notably Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, and the National Council of Resistance of Iran, led by Maryam Rajavi and her People’s Mojahedin Iran (MeK) organization.
While Azizi dismissed the possibility of a significant role for the MeK, given its divisive history, he acknowledged Pahlavi’s growing influence. “He has a significant and potentially growing following in Iran, as evidenced by the many people who chanted his name at recent demonstrations,” Azizi noted. “He has made himself the leading candidate in Iranian opposition politics.” However, he cautioned that Pahlavi remains a polarizing figure, whose political camp embraces ideologies that alienate many Iranians.
The “Venezuela Model” and the Question of Leadership Change
A potential path forward, according to Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, involves a strategy mirroring the “Venezuela model” – a leadership change without broader regime overhaul. This approach gained prominence following the controversial deployment of U.S. Delta Force operatives who apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, leading to their trial on “narcoterrorism” charges.
“President Trump might as well pursue a ‘Venezuela model,’ which amounts to leadership change without regime change,” Alfoneh explained. He suggested that the Iranian leadership, including representatives from the executive, judicial, and legislative branches, as well as the IRGC and the military, might consider sacrificing Ayatollah Khamenei to reach an agreement with the United States.
Such an agreement could unlock sanctions relief, facilitate the return of U.S. oil companies, and stabilize Iran’s economy, ensuring the regime’s survival. However, Alfoneh warned that this scenario is likely to face opposition from Israel, and the outcome will depend on the balance of power between the oil lobby and the Israel lobby in Washington.
Assessing the Immediate Threat
Currently, the regime is not in immediate danger. Alfoneh estimated that “the Revolutionary Guard has not yet been deployed and there are no signs of defections within the security forces.” However, the escalating protests and the internal power struggles suggest that the situation remains highly fluid and could rapidly evolve. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the future of Iran and the potential for a significant shift in the regional balance of power.
