Trump’s Venezuela Strategy: A High-Stakes Gamble for Oil and Influence
A deepening U.S. military and economic campaign in Venezuela, ostensibly aimed at combating drug trafficking, is increasingly viewed as a strategic maneuver to secure access to the nation’s vast oil reserves and critical minerals, raising concerns about a potential repeat of past interventionist failures.
President Donald Trump has made his initial objectives clear: targeting alleged drug smugglers and pushing for the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. However, the path beyond these initial steps – “phase two,” as some within the administration call it – remains shrouded in secrecy, with the ultimate goal, “phase three,” centering on establishing a relationship with a new Venezuelan government to exploit the country’s rich natural resources.
The opacity surrounding the strategy stems, in part, from a desire to avoid the pitfalls of previous U.S. interventions in authoritarian nations, notably the protracted and destabilizing Iraq War. According to a senior official, Trump favors a “wait-and-see approach,” but internal divisions within the administration persist regarding the extent of U.S. involvement in attempting to oust Maduro.
Trump recently stated that Maduro’s “days are numbered,” but the question remains whether it would be more advantageous to negotiate with a weakened Maduro or navigate the uncertainties of a post-Maduro Venezuela, which could range from a pro-U.S. government to widespread unrest. One administration official expressed concern that military intervention could create a failed state and trigger a surge in northward migration. Another acknowledged that even a successful transition would likely be fraught with challenges, stating, “things will likely get worse before they get better. We need to be ready for that.”
Despite assurances from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt that “prolonged war is definitely not something this president is interested in,” the lack of a clear plan to avoid escalation is raising eyebrows. While the administration publicly frames the pressure on Maduro as a matter of national security – stemming the flow of drugs into the U.S. – critics point out that Venezuela is primarily a transit point for cocaine destined for Europe and plays a limited role in the U.S. drug supply.
However, there is little doubt about Trump’s broader interest in removing a socialist leader aligned with Cuba and Russia and gaining access to Venezuela’s substantial resources. “This is a shakedown—a financial shakedown,” one official asserted, “being done primarily for profit.” Venezuela holds approximately 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves and a largely untapped supply of rare earth minerals, crucial for modern technology and a key area where the U.S. seeks to counter China’s dominance. As Jimmy Story, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, explained, “They have the critical minerals to fuel the 21st-century economy, and they are sitting on the world’s largest known reserves of oil, and they’re in bed with our strategic competitors.”
So far, the U.S. has deployed a significant military presence in the Caribbean, including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and around 15,000 troops, as part of “Operation Southern Spear.” U.S. missiles have reportedly killed over 80 alleged drug smugglers in more than 20 strikes, and Trump has acknowledged authorizing covert CIA operations. On Wednesday, the U.S. seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, with plans to initiate a “legal process” to utilize the oil domestically. Further economic pressure was applied through a new round of sanctions targeting individuals, including three of Maduro’s nephews, accused of supporting his regime.
The administration has been considering potential land-based missile targets linked to both drug cartels and the Venezuelan military, though options targeting cartels in Colombia and Mexico are considered less likely due to regional instability. The hope among some advisors is that disrupting Maduro’s funding sources will lead to his downfall.
However, the situation in Caracas remains tense. A Venezuelan official, speaking anonymously, reported that Maduro has accused the U.S. of “psychological terrorism” and increased security measures. Despite the escalating pressure, neither U.S. nor Venezuelan officials believe Maduro is close to relinquishing power. In a symbolic gesture, Maduro was observed defiantly dancing at a political rally, mirroring Trump’s own characteristic movements.
The current situation evokes cautionary parallels to the Iraq War. As one official noted, “It’s like the invasion of Iraq all over again—just a kind of coalescing and a train that has left the station before the actual intelligence or prep has been considered.” The potential for a protracted conflict and the challenges of establishing a stable post-Maduro government are significant.
So far, there are no indications of a military coup against Maduro, with preparations underway to defend against a U.S. attack. Even if Maduro were to flee, the military could intervene, potentially suppressing any popular uprising and installing its own leadership. “If the guys with the guns stay with the regime, then it’s tough” to envision a smooth transition, according to Ryan Berg, a Latin America expert.
Despite the risks, administration officials believe that Maduro’s departure would be widely welcomed by the Venezuelan population. A new government, potentially led by the current opposition, could seek assistance from the U.S. and Western oil companies to revitalize the country’s economy. The Trump administration has signaled its support for Edmundo González and María Corina Machado as potential leaders, though Machado’s current status as a political exile after seeking asylum in Spain presents complications.
Elliott Abrams, a former special representative for Venezuela, emphasized the importance of a Venezuelan-led transition with U.S. support, particularly in providing security. He stressed that Maduro cannot be replaced by his vice president or a military dictatorship. “It must be González because he was elected,” Abrams stated.
Former Representative Matt Gaetz, now reporting for the Pentagon press corps, recently questioned the administration’s contingency plans should Maduro leave. A department spokesperson responded that they have “a contingency plan for everything,” but offered no specifics.
The outcome in Venezuela remains uncertain, but the stakes are high, with the potential for significant geopolitical and economic consequences. The situation demands careful consideration of the lessons learned from past interventions and a clear understanding of the complex dynamics at play in the region.
