Borujerd, Iran – Marching with a column of protesters in western Iran, a middle-aged woman remained defiant as blood streamed down her chin. “I am not afraid,” she declared in a video clip posted. “I have been dead for 47 years.”
Her words resonated with many among the swelling crowds now filling the streets of Iran. Demonstrations are erupting across all 31 provinces, offering Iranians a glimpse of potential national renewal after nearly five decades of theocratic rule.
Iran has seen periodic mass protests over the past two decades—the Green Movement of 2009, the fuel protests of 2019, and the Women, Life, Freedom uprising of 2022–23. Each was met with brutal repression. However, the Islamic Republic has never been as weakened domestically or as vulnerable to external pressure. The possibility of overthrowing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime is no longer simply theoretical.
A Historic Opportunity for Regime Change in Iran
Table of Contents
Widespread protests create a unique moment for a shift in power within the Islamic Republic.
- The Islamic Republic is facing unprecedented internal and external pressures.
- Former President Trump’s policies have significantly weakened the regime.
- A shift in strategy towards maximum support for protesters could accelerate regime change.
- Maintaining pressure on Iran’s economy and bolstering communication channels for protesters are crucial.
For former President Trump, these protests present a pivotal opportunity to solidify his legacy. Just as President Reagan didn’t dismantle the Soviet Union through direct military intervention, but through sustained economic, ideological, and proxy pressure—while simultaneously supporting internal dissidents—Trump can apply a similar strategy to the Islamic Republic.
Throughout his two terms, Trump targeted the regime’s foundations through robust sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and—by participating in the final phase of Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025—military action. Consequently, the Islamic Republic is currently weaker than at any point since its establishment in 1979. However, it would be naive to assume the regime’s decline is irreversible. The ayatollahs will not relinquish power easily and will likely resort to violence against a largely unarmed populace, as they have done since 2009. Trump is uniquely positioned to determine whether the regime survives or joins the Soviet Union on what Reagan termed the “ash heap of history.”
Trump’s existing policy of maximum pressure—focused on Iran’s nuclear program, missile development, and support for regional proxies—must now be coupled with maximum support for the ongoing protests. With millions taking to the streets, achieving regime change is now a realistic goal, avoiding the costly invasions and occupations that characterized America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
How to Support the Protests Effectively
In the spirit of the Hippocratic Oath, the first principle should be to do no harm. Trump should moderate his rhetoric, avoiding terms like riots or stampedes that mirror regime propaganda. Recognizing that the regime exploits negotiations merely to buy time and sow division in the West, he should unequivocally reject any overtures from Tehran to restart nuclear talks.
Trump has publicly expressed admiration for the Iranian people’s “enthusiasm to overturn that regime” and warned the ayatollahs that the United States remains “locked and loaded” should they resort to a massacre. This messaging is vital, reminding protesters that the regime is not invincible—particularly after its underwhelming performance in June’s 12-Day War with Israel and the U.S., and its inability to address Iran’s economic crisis and worsening water and environmental challenges.
Trump can also amplify individual acts of courage—publicly acknowledging protesters in interviews and speeches, and sharing their videos on social media. The State Department’s Persian-language accounts can serve as valuable amplifiers, but presidential leadership is paramount.
Targeting the Regime’s Repressive Apparatus
Simultaneously, the administration must identify, condemn, and sanction human rights abusers at every level of the regime’s security forces. Specifically, it should fully enforce the sanctions authorized by the bipartisan MAHSA Act, enacted following the murder of Mahsa Amini, which ignited the Women, Life, Freedom protests.
Iran’s energy sector—the regime’s primary source of revenue—must be further constricted. Due to lax sanctions enforcement during the Biden administration, Iranian oil exports currently stand near 2 million barrels a day, significantly exceeding the Trump administration’s target of 100,000 barrels. The regime should be prevented from illicitly selling oil to fund its repression. Deploying the U.S. Navy to seize Iranian oil tankers—as has been done with Venezuela—is necessary, as is sanctioning Chinese banks that facilitate these transactions. Every dollar denied weakens the regime’s security forces.
With foreign journalists barred from reporting, social media is the protest movement’s lifeline. Predictably, the regime has imposed a nationwide internet blackout to isolate demonstrators and conceal atrocities. The United States should collaborate with private-sector partners to ensure free and secure communications, deploying Starlink terminals and expanding access to free VPNs. Without communication, protesters cannot mobilize, coordinate, or expose the regime’s crimes.
Building International Pressure
Trump should also urge U.S. allies to take stronger action. The European Union has sanctioned individual members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but not the IRGC itself—the regime’s core, benefiting from Iran’s energy sector, ports, infrastructure, and banks. Western capitals should also reconsider maintaining diplomatic ties with Iran, given clear evidence of regime-linked terror plots in Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia, and the United States.
Finally, Trump can accelerate internal collapse by weakening the regime from within. He can offer incentives for defections, authorize targeted cyber and covert operations against the Basij, cyber police, and morality police—as Israel demonstrated last June, and conduct influence operations to exacerbate divisions among regime supporters. If necessary, he can act decisively—targeting security convoys attempting to suppress protests and denying the regime control of its streets.
None of this necessitates occupation or nation-building. It requires precise intelligence, covert action, and close collaboration between the CIA and Israel’s Mossad—capabilities already demonstrated within Iran.
The overthrow of the Islamic Republic would be one of the most significant foreign policy achievements of the 21st century. A free Iran would transform the Middle East, dismantle the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, and restore a proud, pro-American nation to its rightful place as a force for stability and prosperity.
Trump recently told The New York Times that the only limitation on his power is “my own morality, my own mind.” If that is the case, he has a unique opportunity to act—but his window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
