Warsaw – Poland’s current ruling coalition faces a challenging path to maintaining power, according to a new analysis of parliamentary seat projections. A recent IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita” suggests that the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, alongside the Confederation and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, could potentially form a governing majority. This shift in potential power dynamics comes as the current government, led by Civic Coalition (KO), struggles with public approval and faces a complex political landscape.
The IBRiS poll indicates that PiS could secure 131 seats, while the Confederation would hold 74, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 43, totaling 248 seats – enough to form a government. This contrasts with the current projections for the ruling coalition, where Koalicja Obywatelska holds 186 seats and The Left has 26, falling short of a majority. But, sociologist Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University notes that the situation could change if the Polish People’s Party (PSL) were to surpass the electoral threshold in future elections, potentially adding to the coalition’s strength. According to Flis, if PSL and Razem were to perform well, the current coalition could maintain a stronger position.
Shifting Political Landscape and Coalition Possibilities
Despite the current projections, Flis emphasizes that the forces currently supporting the October 15th coalition remain significant. He suggests that a unified front from the three parties within the coalition would outperform the combined strength of PiS and the Confederation parties. This highlights the importance of internal cohesion and strategic alliances in shaping the future political landscape.
PiS Eyes Solo Rule, Points to External Issues
Despite internal challenges and declining poll numbers, PiS continues to aim for a standalone government. The party is focusing on polarizing issues, including opposition to the SAFE Act and criticism of the government’s handling of the evacuation of Polish citizens from the Middle East following the attack on Iran.
Jacek Sasin, a prominent figure within PiS, expressed confidence in the party’s ability to win and govern independently. According to a CBOS poll cited by Rzeczpospolita, PiS currently faces its lowest approval ratings in years, but Sasin dismissed the polls as inaccurate, pointing to past instances where predictions failed to materialize. He argued that internal party surveys show better results, though still lower than previous election outcomes.
Leadership Change on the Horizon for PiS?
PiS is reportedly working to resolve internal disputes and believes that nominating a clear candidate for prime minister will help shape the public debate and boost the party’s support. Mariusz Błaszczak announced that party leader Jarosław Kaczyński will unveil the candidate at a conference in Krakow this Saturday, contingent on PiS securing a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
The Civic Coalition was formed in October 2025 through a merger of Civic Platform (PO), Modern (N.), and Polish Initiative (iPL), according to Wikipedia. The party currently holds 153 seats in the Sejm and 36 in the Senate.
The political situation remains fluid, and the coming months will be crucial in determining the future direction of Polish politics. The ability of the current coalition to address public concerns and maintain unity, as well as PiS’s success in capitalizing on perceived government weaknesses, will be key factors in the outcome of the next elections.
The next major event to watch will be the announcement of PiS’s prime ministerial candidate this Saturday in Krakow, a move that could significantly influence the political discourse and potentially shift public opinion.
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