As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, questions about the long-term sustainability of Western support for Kyiv are growing. A recent analysis by Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, proposes a path forward that could lessen the burden on the United States and bolster Ukraine’s defenses: a strengthened, European-led military aid coalition. This concept, detailed in his January 2026 Foreign Affairs article, “Fortress Ukraine: How a Coalition of the Willing Can Rearm Kyiv Without Washington,” suggests that European nations can significantly increase their military assistance to Ukraine, even amidst potential shifts in U.S. Policy. The core idea centers on Europe taking greater ownership of Ukraine’s security, reducing reliance on American aid packages and navigating potential political headwinds in Washington.
Ciaramella’s work comes at a critical juncture. With the possibility of a change in U.S. Administration looming, and former President Donald Trump openly suggesting potential deals with Russia regarding Ukraine, the need for alternative support mechanisms is becoming increasingly urgent. In a February 2026 piece for the Carnegie Endowment, Ciaramella explored the implications of a potential Trump-Russia agreement, highlighting the risks to Ukraine’s sovereignty and the broader European security order. He argues that a proactive European strategy is not merely a contingency plan, but a necessary step to safeguard Ukraine’s future, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. The focus on European self-reliance in arming Ukraine is a key element in mitigating potential disruptions to aid flows.
The Case for a European-Led Coalition
Ciaramella, who previously served as a deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council and on the National Security Council staff, brings a wealth of experience to this analysis. His profile at the Carnegie Endowment details his extensive background in U.S. Government intelligence and policy roles focused on the region. The “Fortress Ukraine” article, co-authored with Sophia Besch, outlines a practical framework for European nations to collectively provide Ukraine with the weapons, training, and logistical support it needs. This isn’t about replacing U.S. Aid entirely, Ciaramella clarifies, but about building a more resilient and sustainable support system that isn’t solely dependent on Washington’s decisions.
The proposal involves several key components. First, it calls for increased defense spending among European nations, specifically earmarked for aid to Ukraine. Second, it advocates for streamlining arms procurement processes to expedite deliveries. Third, it emphasizes the importance of coordinated intelligence sharing and joint military exercises to enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. A significant aspect of the plan involves leveraging existing European defense initiatives, such as the European Peace Facility, to channel funds and resources more effectively. The authors suggest that a combined effort could allow Europe to provide Ukraine with a comparable level of military assistance to what it currently receives from the United States.
Funding and Political Challenges
One of the major hurdles to implementing this plan is funding. While many European nations have already pledged significant financial and military aid to Ukraine, sustaining that level of support over the long term will require a sustained political commitment and potentially difficult budgetary choices. Ciaramella acknowledges these challenges, noting that some European countries may be hesitant to significantly increase their defense spending, particularly in the face of domestic economic pressures. However, he argues that the strategic imperative of supporting Ukraine outweighs these concerns, and that failing to do so would have far-reaching consequences for European security.
The political landscape within Europe also presents obstacles. Different nations have varying perspectives on the conflict and the appropriate level of support for Ukraine. Achieving consensus on a coordinated strategy will require skillful diplomacy and a willingness to compromise. The potential for political shifts within individual European countries could also impact their commitment to the coalition. Ciaramella’s analysis suggests that building a broad-based coalition, encompassing both large and small European nations, is crucial to overcoming these challenges.
Implications of a Potential Trump-Russia Deal
Ciaramella’s February 2026 analysis, “What If Trump Gets His Russia-Ukraine Deal?” delves into the potential ramifications of a negotiated settlement between the U.S. And Russia that could compromise Ukraine’s interests. He warns that such a deal could embolden Russia, undermine European security, and set a dangerous precedent for international relations. The Carnegie Endowment article outlines scenarios where Ukraine could be forced to cede territory or accept unfavorable terms in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.
In such a scenario, a robust European-led military aid coalition would be even more critical. It could provide Ukraine with the means to defend its remaining territory and deter further Russian aggression. It could also serve as a signal to Moscow that Europe is united in its support for Ukraine and will not tolerate any attempts to undermine its sovereignty. Ciaramella emphasizes that a strong European response is essential to mitigating the risks associated with a potential U.S.-Russia deal and preserving the principles of international law and territorial integrity.
The conversation with Max and Maria, recorded on February 26, 2026, explored these themes in detail, focusing on the practicalities of funding and the broader assessment of peace negotiations with Russia. Ciaramella’s insights offer a pragmatic approach to navigating a complex and uncertain geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the importance of European agency and resilience in supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom.
Looking ahead, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of Western support for Ukraine. The implementation of a European-led military aid coalition will require sustained political will, increased defense spending, and a coordinated approach among European nations. The next key development to watch will be the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election and the subsequent impact on American policy towards Ukraine.
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