2023-12-20 21:38:44
TRIBUNE – Since the beginning of the disaster of the Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian troops, followed by the understanding by Western partners of the bankruptcy of their project on the territory of Ukraine, those in power in Kiev have found themselves faced with a terrible reality. : the refusal of the continuation of investments coming from the sources which previously assured him of being imperishable – the beginning of the end of the reign of Zelensky and his entourage.
However, such an ending was perfectly predictable. Only ignorance of history and the doctrinal modus operandi of the protagonists condemns us to its repetition. In my analysis from a year ago: “The war in Ukraine: the real reasons for the conflict”, I have already mentioned the constituent elements of the future defeat of kyiv:
“When the time comes, when the American government considers that the ‘return on investment’ in the war in Ukraine is sufficient, or when it realizes that the probability of reaching the threshold of satisfaction is too low, it will abandon the Kiev regime . Will abandon him in the same way that the Afghan regime of Ghani was abandoned and the Kurds in Iraq and Syria were abandoned after having accomplished, partially, the missions assigned to them by America against the promise of creation of a Kurdish state. The promise that only bound those who listened to it.”
The initial intentions of the Russians
THE “experts” from the Western camp have only found one solution to justify their serious lack of vision, anticipation and evaluation of Moscow’s potential: repeating the mantras about Russia’s inability to continue waging the war, since it remains in its positions and has made little progress on the front for a year.
Analytical myopia does not allow them to perceive a disturbing reality. If the Russian Federation had the unilateral initiative at the start of the war to propose the signing of a peace agreement which was to take place in Istanbul, at a time when it was incontestably in a position of strength, including according to point from the view of “Atlanticist camp, this only means one thing: Moscow had already obtained satisfaction with regard to the territorial gains (the pro-Russian territories recovered from Ukraine) and it only remained to obtain from Kiev a commitment on its status of neutrality vis-à-vis NATO, i.e. the legal assurance of the non-presence of the armed forces of the enemy camp on the territory of the buffer state that Ukraine has become for Russia, since 1991.
Today, Russia remains unwaveringly stationed on its positions acquired on the front and is content to exhaust the last remaining material and human forces of the Ukrainian army. This is neither a sign of weakness, nor even less a coincidence.
The Ukrainian-Western theses stipulating that Russia aimed at the disappearance of Ukraine as a state entity are, quite simply, fanciful and are only a reflection of the disconcerting amateurism of their authors. The events that took place in Istanbul at the start of the war are proof of this: if Moscow had as its objective the disappearance of Ukraine, the Kremlin would never have sat around a negotiating table on its own initiative at all. beginning of the war, while it dominated the situation on the ground, its troops were positioned in the suburbs of Kiev where the situation was chaotic. Troops which were only withdrawn as a token of goodwill at the time of the signing of the Istanbul agreement by the Ukrainian side. Signature followed by cancellation instead of ratification…
The revelation
Twenty months have passed since the events mentioned. At the end of November 2023, a very controversial figure on the Ukrainian political scene was brought to the forefront and made revelations in the media which had the effect of a bomb explosion on Ukrainian public opinion. . Revelation considered by the community of Ukrainian experts as the most scandalous of the current year… In an interview with the Ukrainian television channel 1+1, David Arakhamia, who is none other than the head of the parliamentary fraction of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, spoke of the circumstances of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine which took place in Istanbul between March and May 2022. Arakhamia was best placed to discuss this episode: he was in fact at head of the Ukrainian delegation.
He remembers the position of the Russians at the time: “They hoped almost until the last moment that we would accept neutrality. That was their main objective. They were ready to end the war if we took neutrality – like Finland in the past – and made commitments not to join NATO..”
He also mentioned that the “security advisors” from Washington, London, Warsaw and Berlin had access to all of the documents discussed around the negotiating table.
When talking about the reasons for canceling the agreement, he mentioned only one: Boris Johnson’s visit to kyiv. “Boris Johnson came to kyiv and said: “We won’t sign anything with them at all. We will, quite simply, go to war.”
It should be noted that the parliamentarian did not utter a single word regarding Boutcha. And, let us remember, the only official version from kyiv and the Atlanticist camp at the time to justify the cessation of talks with the Russians and the cancellation of the Istanbul agreement was the massacre of the civilian population perpetrated by Russian troops in Boucha.
This illustrious character ends his interview with great pride in having fooled the Russian delegation: “We accomplished our mission of dragging things out with a score of 8 out of 10. They (Russians) relaxed, left, and we headed towards the military solution.”
This revelation broadcast on television allowed the general Ukrainian public to discover the reality of the war which could easily have been stopped from its beginnings. And that it was only at the direct initiative of the West, via its emissary Boris Johnson, that it was relaunched and resulted in hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian deaths and even more seriously injured and mutilated people, as well as the destruction of the economy and infrastructure of a country which will take decades before returning to the pre-war situation. Which was already quite deplorable…
Oleg Nesterenko is president of the CCIE (European Center for Commerce and Industry), representing the interests of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in France.
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