On September 20, 2026, Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks on Moscow’s oil refineries, marking a strategic escalation in targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. The assault, described by Moscow’s mayor as the most massive
since the war began, followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for both sides to cease attacks on energy assets.
The strike, which involved over 450 drones, caused significant damage to a major refinery, with smoke plumes visible across the city. According to the International Energy Association (IEA), Russia’s oil refining capacity has dropped by 45 per cent since the war began, with 450 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) of capacity lost. This decline, exacerbated by repeated Ukrainian strikes, has led to fuel shortages affecting 92 per cent of Russian regions, prompting rationing measures and export restrictions.
Scale of the Attacks and Strategic Shifts
Ukraine’s military strategy has evolved to focus on precision strikes against critical refinery units, aiming to maximize disruption. The IEA noted that Kyiv increasingly targets crude distillation units (CDUs) and secondary processing units like fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs), which are harder to repair. A July 7, 2026, attack on Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery—Russia’s largest—demonstrated this shift, striking a facility 2,500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine is increasingly using multiple waves of drones against individual refineries, seeking to overwhelm protective netting and other largely passive drone defence measures,
the IEA reported.
The impact of these strikes has been severe. By June 2026, oil throughput in Russia had fallen to its lowest level in over 20 years, with gasoline output down 20 per cent compared to 2024 and diesel production dropping nearly 30 per cent. Fuel shortages have led to long queues at gas stations, with some motorists waiting up to 40 hours. The Russian government has also been forced to allow the production of higher-sulphur gasoline, a practice last seen in 2016.
Economic and Geopolitical Consequences
The financial toll on Russia has been substantial. A Washington Post report cited more than 20 strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in 2026, costing Moscow over $7bn. Analysts estimate the total economic loss from refinery damage, lost production, and disruption could reach $20bn, though the IEA noted significant damage
has not been reported to primary crude processing units. However, the long-term effects on Russia’s energy sector remain uncertain.
Despite these challenges, Russia’s oil and gas revenue increased by 60 per cent in 2026 compared to the previous year, driven by global price surges. This paradox highlights the complexity of the conflict’s economic fallout. Meanwhile, the U.S. has faced pressure to address Ukraine’s reliance on drone attacks, with Trump calling for an end to such operations. However, the strategy has persisted, reflecting Ukraine’s determination to cripple Russia’s energy sector.
The next phase of the conflict hinges on Russia’s ability to restore refinery capacity and mitigate fuel shortages. Repairing secondary units like FCCs could take six to eight months, complicating efforts to stabilize supply. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military has indicated it will continue targeting refineries, with analysts suggesting the focus will shift to facilities in eastern Siberia and the Far East—regions currently beyond the range of Ukrainian drones.
Geopolitically, the attacks have intensified pressure on Russia’s allies and trading partners. The EU’s decision to remove sanctions on Russian oligarchs has drawn criticism from Latvia’s Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who warned it risks normalising Russia.
As the war enters its fifth year, the targeting of energy infrastructure underscores a broader shift in tactics, with both sides leveraging economic leverage to gain strategic advantage.
The humanitarian and economic fallout for Russia is likely to deepen, with fuel rationing and rising prices affecting millions. For Ukraine, the strategy represents a high-stakes gamble to erode Russia’s war economy. As the conflict evolves, the interplay between military action, economic pressure, and international diplomacy will shape the trajectory of the war—and its global implications.