The arrival of a single Russian oil tanker at Cuba’s Matanzas oil terminal on Tuesday may seem like a minor logistical event, but for those tracking the secret talks between US and Cuba, it was a loud signal. The Anatoly Kolodkin, a sanctioned vessel, unloaded 700,000 barrels of crude oil—a move that would have been unthinkable just months ago under the strict oil blockade maintained by the Trump administration.
The shift in tone from the White House has been abrupt. In January, President Donald Trump used social media to declare a total cutoff of resources, stating, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” Yet, in a sharp reversal last week, the president told reporters, “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with it,” effectively waving the Russian shipment through.
The timing of this allowance suggests a transactional diplomacy. Only days after the tanker docked, the Cuban government announced the release of 2,010 prisoners. Although Havana officially described the move as a humanitarian gesture for Holy Week, diplomatic observers see it as a reciprocal “confidence-building measure.” This exchange of oil for prisoners points toward a fragile, covert dialogue aimed at breaking a deadlock that has left the Cuban people in a state of exhaustion.
A Nation on the Brink of Collapse
The urgency of these negotiations is driven by a Cuban economy that has moved beyond a mere slump and into a full-scale crisis. The US oil blockade has paralyzed the island’s infrastructure, turning daily life into a struggle for basic survival. Most petrol stations are shuttered, and the electrical grid has succumbed to a cycle of daily blackouts that have become a grueling norm for the population.
The tourism sector, once a vital lifeline, has nearly vanished. Major airlines from Canada, Russia, China, and France have ceased operations, and Spain’s Iberia is scheduled to withdraw by the end of May. This economic asphyxiation has fueled a massive demographic shift. an estimated 2 million people have fled the island over the last five years, leaving a remaining population of roughly 9.5 million.
In the eastern pilgrimage site of El Cobre, the sentiment is one of total depletion. One local man described the situation as a systemic failure, noting that health, education, and transport are all collapsing simultaneously. For the average citizen, the only news of potential relief comes in fragmented leaks, almost always originating from the US side, leaving the public to guess at the terms of the secret talks.
The “Carrot and Stick” Choreography
Diplomats are closely watching the movement of tankers as a proxy for the health of the negotiations. While the Anatoly Kolodkin was allowed to dock, another Russian vessel, the Sea Horse, carrying 200,000 barrels of fuel, remained floating in the Atlantic before being redirected to Venezuela. This choreography suggests the US is using oil shipments as “carrots” to incentivize specific concessions from the Cuban government.
| US Action (The “Carrot”) | Cuban Response (The “Concession”) | Strategic Intent |
|---|---|---|
| Permitted 700k barrels of Russian crude | Release of 2,010 prisoners | Confidence-building / Reciprocity |
| Selective easing of oil blockade | Economic openness (Mipymes expansion) | Transactional transition to capitalism |
| Potential diplomatic recognition | Political shift (Díaz-Canel’s status) | “Friendly” takeover of the island |
The Rise of “Sovereign Capitalism”
While the Cuban regime has held power since 1959, a new internal economic engine is creating a potential path for a deal. Since 2021, the government has permitted the growth of Mipymes—small to medium-sized private businesses. We find now more than 10,000 of these enterprises, ranging from neighborhood corner stores to large-scale logistics firms.
These businesses have birthed a new class of wealthy Cubans, many of whom maintain deep ties to the regime and Gaesa, the military’s powerful economic wing. This intersection of private profit and state power is where the secret talks between US and Cuba may find their common ground. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a key figure in the negotiations, embodies this overlap; he is the grandson of former president Raúl Castro and the son of the late Luis Rodríguez López-Calleja, the former head of Gaesa.
This shift toward a hybrid economy was highlighted in a recent CNN interview with Sandro Castro, the 33-year-ancient grandson of Fidel Castro. Known more for his influencer lifestyle than his politics, Sandro suggested that the majority of Cubans desire a form of “capitalism with sovereignty” rather than strict communism. Most strikingly, he criticized current president Miguel Díaz-Canel, stating he is “not doing a good job”—a comment that, in previous years, would have likely resulted in an immediate arrest by state security.
The Political Price of Peace
The proposed route forward appears to be a transactional one: the US may allow certain members of the Castro family to retain their wealth and influence in exchange for a broader opening of the economy and the removal of Miguel Díaz-Canel. This would align with President Trump’s stated goal of a “friendly” takeover of the island, mirroring certain tactical approaches used in Venezuela.
But, this strategy faces significant hurdles in Miami. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a staunch opponent of the Castro dynasty, represents a hardline exile community that may find any deal involving the Castro name unacceptable. Pedro Freyre, a prominent Miami attorney, noted that while Díaz-Canel is a “leader by consensus” and thus easier to displace, the historical weight of the Castro name makes it a volatile point of negotiation.
The most precarious element of any such deal is the fate of the roughly 40% of Cubans who exist outside the private sector or the remittance economy. These individuals—mostly the elderly and the rural poor—rely on a state system that promised cradle-to-grave care but is now unable to provide basic nutrition. As the elite negotiate the terms of a capitalist transition, this vulnerable population remains on the edge of starvation.
The next critical checkpoint for these negotiations will be the monitoring of further fuel shipments and whether the US officially modifies its sanctions list to accommodate more Mipymes trade. Any formal announcement regarding the leadership of the Cuban presidency would signal the final stage of this transactional detente.
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