The economic geography of North America is undergoing a structural realignment, as Mexico continues to expand its footprint in the region’s most critical logistics artery. According to the latest data from the U.S. Government, México gana terreno a Canadá en comercio terrestre con EE.UU. Durante 2025, signaling a pivot toward the south that is reshaping how goods move across the continent.
The annual report on cross-border freight transport from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reveals that land-based trade between the United States and Mexico reached a value of $872.8 billion. This represents a 3.9% increase compared to 2024, further cementing Mexico’s role as the primary engine of U.S. Land imports and exports.
This growth stands in stark contrast to the trend observed on the northern border. Freight transport between the U.S. And Canada fell to $712.8 billion in 2025, a decline of 6.4% year-over-year. Whereas total trade between Washington and Ottawa remains substantial at $1.6 trillion, it dipped by 1% over the last year, suggesting that the regional supply chain is tilting in favor of Mexican manufacturing.
Together, these two borders facilitate an annual trade volume exceeding $1 trillion, with daily flows averaging approximately $4 billion. This integration serves as the operational backbone for the automotive, electronics, energy, and agricultural sectors, where land transport facilitates more than 80% of the total cargo value.
The Shift Toward Road-Based Manufacturing
The divergence between the two neighbors is most evident in the mode of transport. Road transport has become the dominant force in the southern corridor, accounting for 73.6% of trade with Mexico. In comparison, trucking accounts for 55.7% of the land trade with Canada, where pipelines and rail often carry a heavier relative weight due to the nature of energy exports.
The scale of this shift is reflected in the monthly values. Between April 2020 and December 2025, the monthly value of road transport with Mexico surged from $20.8 billion to $51.5 billion. During the same period, Canada’s road trade grew from $17.8 billion to $30.2 billion. Today, the value of road-based trade with Mexico is approximately 50% higher than that of Canada.
| Metric | Mexico | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| Land Trade Value | $872.8 Billion | $712.8 Billion |
| Annual Growth Rate | +3.9% | -6.4% |
| Road Transport Share | 73.6% | 55.7% |
| Monthly Value (Dec 2025) | $51.5 Billion | $30.2 Billion |
This trend is not accidental; it is the direct result of the nearshoring phenomenon. The relocalization of production chains has accelerated the utilize of trucks to move finished manufactured goods from Mexican factories to U.S. Consumers. The relationship is now defined by a high reliance on Mexican labor and industrial capacity, with the road network serving as a conveyor belt for just-in-time delivery.
Laredo: The Heart of North American Logistics
As volumes grow, the pressure on physical infrastructure has intensified. The city of Laredo, Texas, has solidified its position as the most important land port in North America. The Laredo gateway handles a staggering annual cargo volume exceeding $296.22 billion, processing nearly 6 million truck crossings per year.
While Laredo dominates, other strategic points are critical to the flow of goods. In road transport, Ysleta and Otay Mesa are key hubs, while rail traffic is concentrated in Laredo, Eagle Pass, and El Paso. These corridors are essential for the “just-in-time” logistics models used by the automotive and agricultural industries, where a delay of a few hours can disrupt entire assembly lines.
However, this concentration of flow creates significant operational risks. The BTS analysis on border resilience identifies Laredo as a high-congestion zone, with average wait times for trucks reaching 45 minutes. This bottleneck makes the regional supply chain sensitive to any disruption, though the proximity of the Colombia-Solidaridad crossing provides a necessary, albeit secondary, alternative to prevent total saturation.
Fragility in the ‘Just-in-Time’ Model
The reliance on road transport introduces a specific set of vulnerabilities. In strategic crossings like Hidalgo and Nogales, which concentrate between 65% and 70% of imports—primarily automotive parts and perishable agricultural products—the sensitivity to delays is extreme.
At these points, wait times average between 38 and 40 minutes, which is notably higher than the average wait times observed at the Canadian border. For companies operating under strict time-sensitive schedules, these minutes represent a systemic risk to productivity.
The evolution of these flows since 2015 shows a clear convergence. For years, Canada held the lead in land trade value, but the road-based trade between the U.S. And Mexico has not only caught up but has frequently surpassed it in recent periods, reflecting a permanent change in the North American productive dynamic.
The next critical checkpoint for this trend will be the upcoming quarterly review of border throughput and the implementation of new customs modernization initiatives aimed at reducing wait times at the Laredo and Nogales ports. These updates will determine if the infrastructure can keep pace with the accelerating demands of nearshoring.
We invite our readers to share their perspectives on the impact of nearshoring in the comments section below.
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