U.S.and Russia Near Agreement to Extend Nuclear Arms Control Treaty
A tentative deal to extend the New START treaty-the last major constraint on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals-is within reach, though final approval from both presidents remains crucial.
The United States and Russia are closing in on an agreement to continue observing the terms of the New START treaty beyond its expiration on Thursday, according to three sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations. While a draft plan has been formulated, two sources cautioned that it still requires the explicit approval of both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Negotiations continued intensely over the past 24 hours in Abu Dhabi, with President Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, leading the discussions with Russian officials.
A “Handshake” Deal
President Trump’s envoys, Steve witkoff and jared Kushner, spearheaded the negotiations with Russian officials on the sidelines of discussions concerning Ukraine in Abu Dhabi.According to a U.S. official, the treaty will formally expire on Thursday, and any extension will not be legally formalized.
“We agreed with russia to operate in good faith and to start a discussion about ways it might very well be updated,” the official stated. Another source indicated the practical outcome would likely involve both sides agreeing to adhere to the treaty’s terms for at least six months, providing a window for negotiations on a potential new, more comprehensive agreement.
Resumption of Military Dialog
In a related development, the U.S. European Command announced on Thursday the resumption of military-to-military dialogue with Russia, a channel that had been suspended in 2021 prior to russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This decision reportedly stemmed directly from the discussions held by Kushner and Witkoff with their Russian counterparts.
The Broader Strategic Context
New START currently caps the number of nuclear warheads that the U.S. and Russia can deploy on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. It also incorporates vital transparency mechanisms to verify compliance. President Putin had previously indicated openness to a short-term extension, but the russian foreign ministry expressed frustration on Wednesday, stating that “our ideas have been deliberately left unanswered.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirmed on Thursday that Russia “is ready for dialogue with the United States on limiting strategic offensive arms if Washington responds constructively.” The White House has so far declined to comment on the ongoing negotiations.
China’s Role and U.S. Concerns
A primary factor behind the White House’s initial reluctance to extend New START is its exclusion of china, which is rapidly modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal. “Obviously, the president’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated on Wednesday.
Beijing has demonstrated little interest in joining any agreement that would limit its nuclear capabilities, and currently lacks a clear incentive to do so. while some analysts believe a trilateral arms control agreement is impractical given the current disparity in arsenal sizes,the possibility of future bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and China remains open. President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, but arms control was not a topic of discussion, according to the White House readout.
Internal Dynamics and Procedural Hurdles
The negotiations surrounding New START unfolded late into wednesday night without the direct involvement of officials from the State Department who specialize in arms control issues. Under secretary for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno is scheduled to address a UN conference on disarmament Friday in Geneva.
One U.S. official cautioned that any agreement reached would likely be a “handshake” deal, as a formal extension is not currently permissible under U.S. law.
What’s Next
Ultimately, the fate of New START hinges on the final approval of both President Trump and President Putin. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this crucial arms control treaty can be preserved, averting a potentially hazardous escalation in the global nuclear landscape.
