Washington is adopting a disciplined, low-profile approach to the lead-up of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit trade talks, prioritizing digital diplomacy over high-level diplomatic visits to Beijing. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has indicated that preparatory engagement will remain virtual, signaling a strategy of tight management and caution as the two superpowers move toward a face-to-face meeting in May.
Speaking on the sidelines of a Hudson Institute event in Washington, Greer ruled out an in-person trip to the Chinese capital before the summit. The decision reflects a calculated effort to maintain leverage and avoid premature concessions, favoring continued virtual engagement to refine the agenda. According to Greer, a pre-summit visit is unnecessary because working-level groups are already meeting regularly to hammer out technical details.
This cautious posture extends beyond travel schedules. Greer indicated there is currently no push to expand bilateral investment ties, suggesting that the administration is not looking to offer new economic incentives as a gesture of goodwill before the leaders meet. Instead, the focus remains on a controlled relationship where stability is defined by the maintenance of existing pressure points.
The Strategy of Managed Trade
At the heart of the current negotiations is a move toward what Greer describes as managed trade. This approach departs from traditional free-trade ideals, instead proposing a system where the two nations coordinate the volume and value of goods exchanged to reduce imbalances.
Central to this vision is the proposed creation of a Board of Trade. This body would oversee a system based on the principle of buying equal value of goods from one another, effectively attempting to neutralize the trade deficit through administrative oversight rather than purely market-driven forces. Greer noted that negotiators in Paris have already reached a general agreement on the types of outcomes they hope to achieve during the May summit.
This shift toward managed trade suggests that Washington is less interested in a comprehensive “grand bargain” and more focused on a series of enforceable, quantitative targets. By focusing on the value of goods exchanged, the US aims to create a more predictable economic relationship that limits China’s ability to flood US markets with subsidized exports.
Stability Through Leverage
While Greer described the current economic relationship as stable, he clarified that this stability is predicated on the continuation of several strategic pressures. The US intends to maintain substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, using them as both a shield for domestic industry and a bargaining chip for the summit.
A critical component of this stability is the secure access to rare earths. These minerals are essential for high-tech manufacturing, defense systems and the transition to green energy—sectors where China currently holds a dominant global position. Washington’s goal is to ensure that these supply chains remain open and are not used as geopolitical weapons.
By refusing to expand investment ties and keeping tariffs in place, the US is signaling that any significant economic relaxation will only occur after tangible concessions are secured during the summit. This “pressure-first” approach is designed to ensure that the US enters the May meetings from a position of strength.
The Diplomatic Roadmap to Beijing
The path to the summit has been marked by a series of strategic, often indirect, encounters. The administration has utilized international forums to keep channels open without granting the optics of a formal diplomatic courtship.
Last month, Greer met with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on the margins of the 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization in Yaoundé, Cameroon. This meeting served as a critical touchpoint to synchronize expectations before the higher-level talks began. These discussions followed a round of negotiations involving a Chinese delegation led by Vice-Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The sequence of these meetings illustrates a tiered approach: working-level technical groups first, followed by ministerial-level coordination in neutral territories, and finally the presidential summit.
| Phase | Key Participants | Location/Format | Primary Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical Phase | Working-level groups | Virtual/Zoom | Agenda setting & technical details |
| Ministerial Phase | Greer & Wang Wentao | Yaoundé, Cameroon | WTO margins & summit prep |
| Strategic Phase | Bessent & He Lifeng | Paris/Virtual | Agreement on “types of outcomes” |
| Summit Phase | Trump & Xi Jinping | Beijing (May 14-15) | Finalization of trade frameworks |
What This Means for Global Markets
The decision to avoid new investment pushes and maintain tariffs creates a period of calculated uncertainty for global markets. Investors in both the US and China are watching closely to see if the “Board of Trade” concept is feasible or if the summit will result in a further hardening of trade barriers.
For industries reliant on Chinese imports or US technology, the “managed trade” model could mean more rigid quotas and less flexibility in sourcing. However, if the two nations can agree on a stable, predictable exchange of value, it could reduce the volatility that has characterized the trade war of the last several years.
The lack of a pre-summit visit to Beijing suggests that the US is not seeking a “warm” atmosphere, but rather a professional, transactional one. By keeping the preparatory work to Zoom calls and neutral-site meetings, Washington avoids the risk of a diplomatic failure on Chinese soil before the President even arrives.
The next major checkpoint in this diplomatic process is the scheduled arrival of President Donald Trump and Jamieson Greer in Beijing on May 14-15. This visit will be the first definitive test of whether the virtual preparations and the “managed trade” framework can be translated into a signed agreement.
We invite readers to share their perspectives on the “managed trade” approach in the comments below.
