Christmas 2025 Lamb Prices Set to Soar Amid ‘Perfect Storm’ of Challenges
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Consumers should brace for record-high prices on lamb this Christmas season, as a confluence of factors – including disease, demographic shifts, and international demand – drives costs to unprecedented levels. The price of lamb is expected to reach approximately 15-16 euros per kilo, plus VAT, with premium cuts like baby back ribs exceeding 30-35 euros per kilo.
Bluetongue and Farm Closures Decimate Lamb supply
A significant contributor to the escalating prices is the widespread impact of bluetongue, a viral disease affecting sheep. The disease has reduced national herds by as much as 30%, particularly impacting regions like La Mancha and Extremadura. According to one industry manager, the disease doesn’t just cause immediate losses through abortions and maternal deaths, but also renders male sheep sterile, hindering future breeding.
However,the crisis extends beyond disease. A critical factor, especially in the Granada region, is the lack of generational change within the farming community. Traditional farms are closing as younger generations opt out of the demanding agricultural lifestyle. “With these high prices it slows down, but it does not disappear,” one source noted, suggesting that while increased revenue might temporarily stem the tide, the underlying issue remains.
Export Demand and Ramadan Timing Exacerbate the Problem
Adding to the supply constraints is a shift in commercial strategy. Operators are increasingly prioritizing exports over domestic sales, diverting lamb to international markets willing to pay a premium. this trend is further compounded by the early arrival of Ramadan in 2025, beginning on February 17th.
“In Arab countries they pay a lot for quality lamb and they want them fattened,” an expert explained, “so this year ther is no fear that there will be excess product after Christmas, what is not sold in Spain will be sold abroad.” This means any surplus after the holiday season will be quickly absorbed by foreign demand, preventing prices from falling. The combination of reduced production and heightened international demand has created what industry insiders are calling a “perfect storm.”
Andalusia’s Cebacor Confirms the Trend
The situation is confirmed by Cebacor, Andalusia’s largest lamb feedlot based in Baza. The company’s owner reported a decrease in both lamb supply and national consumption, while simultaneously noting the growing importance of foreign trade. Cebacor’s CB brand is recognized as a symbol of high-quality Spanish lamb,particularly sought after in countries with large Muslim populations.
The increasing demand from these markets allows companies like Cebacor to capitalize on higher prices, even as domestic consumers face a more expensive Christmas dinner. The trend suggests a basic shift in the lamb market,with international demand increasingly dictating prices and availability.
Why are lamb prices soaring? A “perfect storm” of factors is driving up prices, including the spread of bluetongue disease, a decline in the number of sheep farmers due to generational shifts, and increased demand from international markets, particularly those observing Ramadan.
Who is affected? Spanish consumers are most directly impacted, facing considerably higher prices for lamb this Christmas. Sheep farmers are experiencing both losses due to disease and potential gains from export opportunities. Cebacor, as a major feedlot, is adapting to the changing market dynamics.
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