Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
How can Ukraine adapt to a changing landscape of international support?
Time.news Interview: The Future of Western Support for Ukraine
Time.news Editor: Thank you for joining us today. We have Dr. Emily Thompson, a renowned expert in international relations and conflict studies, to discuss the decreasing momentum of Western support for Ukraine. Dr. Thompson, the recent reports from the Kiel Institute highlight a worrying trend. Can you summarize what we’re seeing in terms of aid to Ukraine?
Dr. Emily Thompson: Thank you for having me. As the Kiel Institute’s report indicates, we’re witnessing a significant decline in new aid allocations to Ukraine compared to last year. Between August 2023 and January 2024, there was a marked drop in contributions from Western nations. This seems to be a worrying sign, especially considering the ongoing conflict.
Time.news Editor: What do you think are the primary reasons behind this decline in support?
Dr. Emily Thompson: There are several factors at play. Firstly, the political climate in the United States is quite turbulent, with the Senate facing difficulties in approving additional aid. This partisan divide has led to hesitation in moving forward with substantial support packages. Secondly, the European Union has also struggled to navigate the complexities of allocating aid. The recent failed attempts to pass a 50 billion euro aid package showcases internal divisions, particularly within the bloc, such as opposition from Hungary.
Time.news Editor: That’s interesting. The report mentions that the number of donors is also decreasing and that support is increasingly concentrated among a core group of countries. Which countries are at the forefront of this support?
Dr. Emily Thompson: Primarily, we see the United States and Germany leading the charge, along with the UK and Poland. These nations have been steadfast in their support since the onset of the conflict. However, the concern is that as the number of donors decreases, it could lead to a situation where Ukraine’s needs are not sufficiently met, especially as the war continues and demands for military and humanitarian aid grow.
Time.news Editor: Given this shift in dynamics, what might this mean for Ukraine’s efforts moving forward?
Dr. Emily Thompson: It implies significant challenges. With diminishing support, Ukraine may struggle to maintain its defense capabilities and overall resilience. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding future aid packages could affect both military strategy and public morale in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government will need to explore alternative partnerships and perhaps bolster domestic resource mobilization to fill any gaps left by Western support.
Time.news Editor: What role do you believe public opinion in Western countries plays in this changing landscape of aid?
Dr. Emily Thompson: Public opinion is crucial. As the conflict drags on, it’s natural for public attention and enthusiasm for international aid to wane. Many citizens of donor countries may start to question the sustainability of long-term support without a clear endgame or strategy for peace. Policymakers must communicate the importance of continued support, not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for the broader issues of democracy and stability in Europe.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Thompson. Before we wrap up, what are your projections for the upcoming months regarding aid to Ukraine?
Dr. Emily Thompson: It’s challenging to predict. However, if the current political dynamics continue, we may see ongoing difficulties in approving significant aid packages. It’s essential for advocates of Ukrainian support to rally public and political will. The international community must recognize that supporting Ukraine is not just about aiding a country in conflict, but about upholding the principles of democracy and international law.
Time.news Editor: Thank you for your insights, Dr. Thompson. The situation is indeed complex and requires close attention. We appreciate your time and expertise today.
Dr. Emily Thompson: Thank you for having me. It’s important we keep these discussions alive as events unfold.