Guadalajara Braces for Dry Winter with Warmer Temperatures, Potential Health Risks
Table of Contents
A prolonged dry spell adn unusually warm temperatures are forecast for Guadalajara, Mexico, through the remainder of 2025, according to experts at the Institute of Astronomy and meteorology (IAM) of the University of Guadalajara (UdeG). Residents should prepare for colder mornings alongside warmer afternoons and a heightened risk of environmental contingencies.
End of the Rainy Season and the “La Niña” Effect
The rainy season in the Guadalajara Metropolitan area (AMG) has come to an abrupt halt, with November marking the first month without any recorded rainfall. A senior meteorologist explained that this dryness is directly linked to the ongoing “La Niña” phenomenon, a climate pattern expected to persist in the coming months.
“The cold phase results in drier weather dominating in our region in the winter months,” the meteorologist stated. “For the remainder of November, we will have temperatures above normal and precipitation will also be below normal.”
December and Beyond: A Continuation of the Trend
The forecast indicates similar conditions will prevail in December, with average temperatures – both maximum and minimum – expected to be warmer than usual.While afternoons will benefit from increased solar radiation and reduced cloud cover,mornings will remain chilly due to passing air waves.
To illustrate, a meteorologist provided an example: “If the minimum in Guadalajara was 10 degrees and the maximum was 30, the average is 20. It will continue to feel cold in the morning becuase we have waves of air.”
Temperature Variations and Potential Cold Waves
december and January are traditionally the coldest months in the AMG. Within the city’s Peripheral Ring, minimum temperatures are anticipated to range between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius. Outside the perimeter, temperatures could drop to between zero and 5 degrees Celsius.
While the overall trend points to warmer temperatures, the possibility of a cold wave originating in northern Mexico could bring localized temperature decreases. “It is indeed likely that at some times temperatures will drop a little more, due to a cold wave that mainly affects the North of the country, but that could also bring some decreases in temperatures here in our area,” one expert noted.
Air Quality Concerns and Public Health Recommendations
The IAM warns that environmental contingencies are likely to occur on a near-daily basis throughout December, January, February, and even into March.These events are attributed to a combination of thermal inversions, trapping pollutants near the ground.
As a result, the IAM recommends that residents avoid strenuous physical activity outdoors during the early morning hours and rely on official channels for up-to-date facts.
A Positive Rainy Season, Uneven Distribution of Rainfall
despite the looming dry winter, the recent rainy season – spanning May to October – was considered triumphant for Jalisco. Accumulated precipitation in the AMG reached 860 to 880 millimeters, with even higher levels recorded along the coast. Though, rainfall in the Los Altos region remained at or below ancient averages.
“This is also confirmed by certain agencies, which carry out the analysis of the ‘counting of bodies of water,’ where they established that levels that had not been seen in previous years were reached,” explained another IAM meteorologist.
The forecast underscores the importance of preparedness as Guadalajara navigates a potentially challenging winter season, balancing warmer temperatures with the risks associated with dry conditions and air quality.
