That is wheat Perhaps the greenest Punjab comes to mind. We are also familiar with the scenes of wheat fields in Punjab through movies. Punjab is one of the top three wheat producing states in India. The other two states are Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Just as Kerala is described as a paddy field, Punjab can be described as the wheat field of India. Although wheat is cultivated in other North Indian states as well, the first thing that comes to everyone’s mind is the wheat and the wheat fields of Punjab. Wheat growing in the soil of Punjab is also in demand for export. The decrease in wheat production and increase in price has been discussed internationally for several months. With the increase in wheat prices, the prices of many food items in the market are skyrocketing. Agricultural experts say things will turn around by April as the weather changes, but farmers struggling with the soil share the worry that things are not going in the right direction – who are we to believe? Experts or farmers? Despite being one of the world’s largest producers of wheat, India lags behind in its exports. In this situation, when the production of wheat decreases and the price goes up, the glimmers of doubt will be directed towards India. What is happening in wheat production and markets? Let’s check in detail…
∙ Who are the culprits?
The central government blames the year-long farmers’ strike since November 2020 for disrupting wheat production. The parties ruling at the center have alleged that the farmers marched to Delhi leaving their farms abandoned. However, the farmers retort that despite the strike, they have not stopped their crops. While one group of farmers was cultivating, the other group was striking. Farmers say that in such a way, farming and strike would take turns.
∙ War will tell wheat stories
International observers say that the Ukraine-Russia war has exacerbated the wheat shortage. Russia and Ukraine account for a quarter of the wheat production in the global market. After the start of the war in February 2023, wheat exports from Ukraine stopped. As the war between the two countries went on for months, the demand for wheat increased, the price increased and the situation equal to famine came, according to international agricultural experts. This is almost true.
∙ Because of Modi’s Anna Yojana?
A section claims that the reason for the decrease in the availability of grains including wheat in the country’s granaries is the grain distribution scheme Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Covid-19 pandemic. This scheme has benefited about 80 crore people. But critics of the plan say that it was wise to announce the plan after increasing the production. On that day, Modi served grain in front of the people who were worried about lack of food during the Covid era. The announcement of Modi’s plan came at a time when markets were closed and grain marketing was completely disrupted. But the above-mentioned plan was withdrawn last December. It is estimated that the lack of grain storage is behind it. The opposition alleges that the Anna Yojana scheme has caused a ‘crack’ in the grain silos and subsequently the prices of grains including wheat have increased.
The central government has distributed 110 lakh metric tonnes of grain through the Anna Yojana scheme. However, the same agenda was brought back in January. However, all the concessions in the first Anna Yojana scheme were not there. Instead, the exemptions under the old National Food Security Act (NFSA) were introduced in a new guise. The new ‘Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana’ was introduced by combining the Antyodaya Anna Yojana scheme under NFSA with the concession for Priority Families (PHH). In the new scheme, the surplus grain that was given in the first scheme will not be available. However, the special feature of the new scheme is that the food grains provided under NFSA have been made free. The difficulty of finding more grain will be spared from the government. The central government says that the expenditure for the new project is around Rs 2 lakh crore.
∙ Importance of oilseeds?
With Punjab’s emphasis on Rabi crops like mustard and other oilseeds, 36,000 hectares of wheat cultivated this season have been cultivated with other crops, according to Punjab’s agriculture department officials. According to the field reports collected by the Punjab Agriculture Department, wheat was cultivated only in 34.90 lakh hectares this year, while wheat was cultivated in 35.26 lakh hectares last year. The Agriculture Department of Punjab is also planning to cultivate more oilseeds in about 75,000 hectares this time. That means 75,000 hectares of land will stop growing wheat and will be replaced by oilseeds. This will also exacerbate the grain crisis.
The heat wave of March 2022 produced low quality wheat. Wheat shrunk and production could not be achieved at the intended level. Climate change has also affected farming practices. Earlier, an average yield of 42.16 quintals of wheat per hectare was lost due to heat wave last year, which was 16% yield. Losses are said to be as high as 25 percent in some districts. In this situation, the farmers will get more income and this has prompted the experts to think about oilseeds.
Dr. Gurvinder Singh, director of the Punjab Agriculture Department, says that the state wants to increase the cultivation area of mustard and other crops this year. “Around 36,000 hectares of wheat cultivation has been shifted to oilseed crops, which is the need of the hour. Even though the amount of cultivated land has decreased, more wheat has been harvested this time than expected,” explains Gurvinder. The availability of edible oil has also decreased as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. This caused the price to rise. With that, farmers turned their attention to oilseeds
∙ A dry climate in which wheat does not grow
The weather has been mostly dry in Punjab and Haryana since February 1, which experts fear will affect wheat. Experts are also warning that high temperatures and lack of rain will affect wheat cultivation in the country’s leading grain-producing states of North India. Current maximum temperatures in Punjab and Haryana are 4-5 degrees above average. This difference is also evident at lower temperatures. Punjab Agricultural University officials also stated that wheat cultivation in this region will be most adversely affected if the dry weather continues in North India.
∙ What’s up with the record!
Central government sources claim that we will record wheat production in 2022-23. During the heat wave in 2021-22, wheat production was reduced to 10.68 crore metric tonnes. However, the Center says that this time the production will increase to 11.2 crore metric tonnes. Production in 2020-21 was 10.96 crore metric tonnes. However, it is also estimated that 11.1 crore metric tonnes were produced in 2019-20. The government and other authorities are giving expectations of wheat color in wheat production. However, farmers look at the scale. They are afraid of heat wave. Unexpected rain is seen with concern. Worrying whether there is a need to change farming methods and timing of farming. When war, strikes, government policies and price hikes are discussed along with unexpected climate change beyond what humans can cope with, every grain of wheat is cooked in the oven of worry.
English Summary: Wheat Supply Dips, Prices Increase, and Why?