The cross : Should we help Russians who want to flee their country?
Jean de Gliniasty (1): The first thing to do is to welcome the Russians as best as possible. The visa debate over the past few weeks has been surreal. In its time, the USSR blocked the departure of its citizens who wanted to flee the regime – with the exception of a few, the most visible and thunderous, whom it expelled – and the West, on the contrary, did everything possible to welcome. We are today on a reverse front. Russia lets its nationals leave, considered as hostile or not accepting the policy of the regime, when the European Union blocks its borders and refuses to welcome them.
Thus the European Union called into question the agreement on the facilitation of the issuance of visas to Russians in force since 2007, to return to the previous regime which was much more restrictive. To satisfy several States, such as Finland, Poland or the Baltic countries, which were in favor of a total blocking of visas, the European decision leaves them room for maneuver to further toughen their policy. What Finland has just decided. Or, conversely, to welcome cultural or scientific personalities.
We have rightly taken measures to welcome Ukrainian refugees, logic dictates that we make the same efforts to welcome Russians, even if in terms of public perception, this seems less obvious. to receive people from the aggressor country.
Should we therefore cancel this decision which has just been implemented by the Twenty-Seven?
J. de G.: I am not sure that these new difficulties in obtaining visas are very dissuasive and block the flow of Russian departures. Since the beginning of the war in February, we are witnessing a third wave of Russian emigration after that of 1920 and that at the time of the fall of the USSR. The most diverse figures circulate and some come and go. At least 200,000 people – some say 600,000 – would have left Russia, mostly to Armenia, Georgia, Turkey, or even Dubai for the richest.
In all respects, from an economic and cultural point of view, it is in the interest of the countries of Europe to welcome these intellectual and economic elites, and all these generally very educated and very Europeanized people, some of whom will settle sustainably. This makes the prosperity of the countries at the forefront of the reception that we have just mentioned. Even if – and it will undoubtedly be inevitable – some KGB or FSB agents interfere in the ranks of the refugees, as some States fear.
Does Russia risk hindering the departure of its nationals following the mobilization decreed by Vladimir Putin on September 21?
J. de G.: For the Russians, the possibility of traveling is the first achievement of the fall of the USSR, obtained moreover from Gorbachev’s perestroika. It is even the most symbolic first freedom for a population trapped for seventy years within the borders of Soviet Russia. If the current regime puts an end to it – I’m not saying that it won’t – then it will be a very heavy decision, a major turning point which will be extremely badly accepted by Russian public opinion.
Can’t there be a distinction between the 300,000 people who can be mobilized and the others?
J. de G.: The amendment to the penal code adopted two days ago by the Duma, and in the process of being adopted by the Council of the Federation, toughens the penalties for those who are considered deserters and do not accept mobilization. In this context, what measures would Russia be likely to take against them? It is likely that the airports will have their file to intercept them, but it is still early to say.
Many reservists have already received their “sticker”, the sheet inviting them to go to their mobilization center. After the wave of departures of those who opposed the war, there has been a new wave since Wednesday of those who refuse to be enlisted in the flag or to go and fight against a brother country. The planes are full. Flight prices are skyrocketing. This will pose ethical and moral problems for European countries that would not want to welcome them.
Can we fear retaliatory measures for their loved ones?
J. de G.: Nothing indicates it for the moment. But the situation can get worse. The course of events in Russia is constantly moving towards more authoritarianism and repression.
Can we imagine that Moscow wants a more massive mobilization?
J. de G.: The Russian power took note that this partial mobilization was very badly accepted. Vladimir Putin will hesitate to take the step towards general mobilization. He also sought to distance himself from this decision by saying that it was at the request of the general staff and the Minister of Defense. No one is fooled.