Novo Nordisk Gains Momentum with FDA Approval of Oral Wegovy, But Faces Ongoing Competition from Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk is closing out 2025 on a positive note, with shares receiving a significant 7% boost on December 23rd following the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of its oral weight loss pill, Wegovy. Despite a challenging year that saw its stock deliver a total return of around -40% as of December 30th, this approval is viewed as a potential catalyst for stronger performance in 2026.
The pharmaceutical giant’s path to recovery is rooted in regaining lost ground in the increasingly competitive weight loss market. Novo Nordisk initially dominated the space with its injectable Wegovy (semaglutide), approved in 2021. However, the landscape shifted dramatically in November 2023 with the FDA’s approval of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (tirzepatide).
A Shift in Sales Growth
Tracking Novo Nordisk’s quarterly sales growth reveals a clear turning point. Sales growth accelerated through 2023, but experienced a sharp decline in the most recent quarter. Here’s a breakdown of the company’s Q3 sales growth over the past five years:
- 2021: 15%
- 2022: 28%
- 2023: 29%
- 2024: 21%
- 2025: 5%
This downturn coincided with the rise of Zepbound, which fueled Lilly’s impressive 54% total sales growth in Q3 2025 – a stark contrast to Novo’s 5% figure. By February 2025, Lilly had overtaken Novo in market share within the U.S. incretin analogs market, a category encompassing GLP-1 and similar drugs. “Lilly’s lead has only grown since then,” according to a company release, largely due to the greater efficacy of injectable tirzepatide, which is approximately 50% more effective at inducing weight loss than injectable semaglutide.
Novo Nordisk’s Countermove: The Oral Wegovy Pill
The approval of an oral formulation of Wegovy represents a strategic response to Lilly’s success and a new battleground in the weight loss market. Both companies are vying to capture patients who prefer oral medications over injectables, while also potentially benefiting from lower manufacturing costs and improved patient adherence.
Novo Nordisk holds a crucial first-mover advantage. The company anticipates launching the oral Wegovy pill in January 2026, while Lilly’s oral solution, orforglipron, is not expected to receive FDA approval until at least late March. This head start could allow Novo to establish a significant foothold among patients seeking oral GLP-1 options.
Furthermore, initial efficacy data suggests Novo’s oral Wegovy may maintain its lead. Clinical trials showed that patients taking oral Wegovy lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight after 64 weeks. A Lilly study released in September indicated that patients on orforglipron lost an average of 12.4% of their weight after 72 weeks. While adjusting for placebo effects and treatment discontinuation narrows the gap – to approximately 11.2% weight loss for oral Wegovy and 9.1% for orforglipron – oral Wegovy patients achieved greater weight loss in a shorter timeframe. This difference could influence patient and physician preferences.
Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
Novo Nordisk urgently requires a product to revitalize its growth trajectory, and oral Wegovy appears poised to deliver. With shares already significantly discounted, analysts predict a solid rebound in 2026. However, sustained success hinges on the company’s continued innovation in weight loss treatments.
The firm’s late-stage pipeline includes CagriSema, a promising drug that demonstrated an average weight loss of 22.7% at 68 weeks in clinical trials. This suggests Novo Nordisk is committed to developing even more effective solutions.
Overall, the outlook for Novo Nordisk shares is increasingly optimistic. However, the sales performance of oral Wegovy in 2026 will be critical in determining the company’s ability to compete with Eli Lilly in the long term.
