The head of the Belarusian project of the British research center, doctor of political sciences, talks about the results of the latest Chatham House survey on the Svaboda Premium channel. Grigor Astapenia.
— This year, Chatham House conducted another online survey among the urban population of Belarus. A year ago, you announced the figure – only 3% of Belarusian citizens for the participation of the Belarusian army in the war on the side of Russia. These were not the most sensational data of Belarusian sociology in its entire history. How did the attitude of Belarusians to various aspects of the war change over the course of a year?
– What we have seen during this year is a clear social division. And because of this division, there are essentially no changes in the attitude towards the war.
This is a division in the attitude to the war, to Russia, to the West – it is not only based on values. It is also based on sources of information consumption. People are limited by the media they use.
When information about the massacre in Buchi came out, it was a huge shock. Many believed that this event would change the attitude towards the war of those who supported Russia in it. But it didn’t actually happen. People who mainly watch Russian television simply did not know about Bucha.
It is difficult to convince anyone who consumes information from Radio Svaboda that Russia is waging a just war in Ukraine. However, we can say the same about people who watch Russian television – it is difficult to convince them that Ukraine is waging a just war.
During the year, the share of Belarusian citizens who were in favor of the participation of the Belarusian army in the war on the side of Russia has practically not changed – it is 2-4%.
– In recent polls, you began to describe society through the consumption of state and non-state media. What does this segmentation indicate, how did it change?
– We really moved from the classification of our respondents according to their attitude towards Lukashenka to the classification according to the sources of information consumed. One of the reasons is that it is not a measurement of opinions, but of practical behavior and actions.
During the two years of research, we used slightly different methods of measuring media consumption. But according to the results of the 2020-2023 research, we saw that the Belarusian and Russian state media in Belarus went through the crisis they had in 2020. But in the following years, they managed to largely restore their audience.
At the same time, numerous restrictions were applied to non-state media, which partially affected the reduction of their audience. Thus, the audience of state media increased, non-state media – decreased.
– But I saw that, according to your surveys, the size of the audience, which consumes information from both state and non-state media equally intensively, has hardly changed. And, let’s say, they received information about the same Bucha from BT and Solovyov, as well as from Radio Svaboda and Dozhdya.
– Those who consume information from both non-state and state media did not trust both. They want to be aware of the information agenda, but their own attitude towards events is only partially shaped by these flows of information.
– In the last poll, you deviated from the 2020 agenda. In particular, they asked a question about the attitude to the reforms. Why? The critic will tell you: “Rigore, are you in your right mind? A dictatorship reigns here, complete terror, and you ask about reforms. And who will do these reforms? Lukashenka is a great reformer?”. Why did you even have the idea to ask about reforms in 2023?
– I would answer the criticism that we understood something about the attitude towards Lukashenka and the war.
We decided to look at society differently. Perhaps we have excessively politicized people’s ordinary lives. Ordinary people do not live with Lukashenko and war all the time.
It is interesting to compare the current time with what you say is the “sour” year of 2019. But that was the last pre-revolutionary year.
However, the public mood at that time looks like “neither fish nor meat.” So, we got the results according to which the public mood regarding social topics is the same – “neither fish nor meat”.
— In 2020, some criticized the protest for the fact that it was focused on the departure of Lukashenka. According to the data of your last survey, do Belarusians want to change a lot in their lives?
– Only 15% of citizens today say that Belarus does not need reforms. And this is despite the fact that this word sometimes has negative connotations.
And not only those who watch and listen to Radio Svaboda, but also part of those who watch Russian and Belarusian television are in favor of reforms. For some of them, Lukashenka is ok, but they would like to see changes.
Belarusians are in favor of changes, but not too fast and not too radical.
– Do the audiences of state and non-state media differ greatly in their aspirations for change?
— The audience of Svoboda, Zerkala, Belsat very clearly wants reforms, it is more pro-market. But this does not mean that she is a libertarian, that she wants to completely change everything in one day.
If you look at the audience of the state media, it also wants change, but slower; it is less liberal.
If these two groups could be brought back to 2019, they would agree on this issue. In 2023, after all we’ve been through, they most likely won’t come to an agreement.
– In the last survey, you asked a number of social and socio-political questions. Can we say that the further the question is directly from politics, the clearer the assessments? At least a lot of people complained about the arbitrary nature of the authorities.
– In fact, the question of the authorities’ arbitrariness is key in this survey. And indeed, clearer, more specific answers are given to social issues, which are more distant from politics.
There are several explanations for this. First of all, not all Belarusians live by politics.
Second, it is the result of the fear factor. People are afraid to express their attitude towards Lukashenka. But why should they not answer the question of what they think about emigration?
– Many respondents rate the economic situation of the country and the quality of state management low. Can we say that such assessments are “clusters of anger”, the seeds of a new protest?
– I would not rush to say that these are “clusters of anger.” But this is a lot of space for new politicians, up to the terms of the new Babarika and the new Tsikhanovsky.
Many people are not satisfied with the socio-economic situation. If we imagine a conditional Rumas on the Belarusian electoral field, then he easily defeats Lukashenka.
That is why such people are not allowed there. In 2019, the situation was similar, there was clear dissatisfaction with where the country was going.
– But there are other estimates. According to your survey, a relative majority believes that corruption in Belarus is lower than in Ukraine and Russia. The attitude towards the bankruptcy of unprofitable enterprises is also more negative than positive. You say people are unhappy. Everyone?
– Of course, not everyone. In our life, many things are attributed to Lukashenka. For example, Belarusians themselves are not prone to corruption. Our data shows that Belarusians want neat reforms. They understand that something is working in their country, something has succeeded in it.
Now we are divided into different camps. But if we remember the year 2020, the election campaign, we can recall that the positions of Tsikhanovskaya and Lukashenka were actually close to the center.
Lukashenka was not categorically against privatization, he was relatively anti-Russian then. And about Tsikhanovskaya, it could be said that her position was relatively pro-Russian. The world was different than it is now.
We see that now the poles have diverged significantly. But many Belarusians remained in the center. And they are waiting for their politicians, their representatives. Babaryka in 2020 offered a moderate approach. And it worked.
– You said that society is waiting for a new Babarik. And the new (or old) Pazniak?
– Well, “old man” Babarika is still there, although he is in prison. Maybe society is waiting for him. The problem is that the poles are not in the majority. Now such events are happening that politicians need to be determined. But, taking a specific, defined position, politicians understand that they are appealing to the minority. And the majority just wants to somehow get out of this situation. Therefore, I would not expect that someone from the flanks can get a majority today.
– In 2020, it was said that the protest did not have a geopolitical dimension. Now Tsikhanovskaya says that if the democratic forces come to power, they will withdraw Belarus from the CSTO. To what extent does this correspond to the current geopolitical attitudes of Belarusians? And whose do they correspond to?
– Belarusians are aware of their country’s economic dependence on Russia. If you ask Belarusians: “Do you want economic cooperation with Russia, but without all this military and political superstructure” – they will answer in the affirmative. But the problem is that this is unrealistic in the modern world, next to Russia as it is.
One can find arguments for Belarusians to distance themselves from Russia in political and military terms. But in the economic sphere, it is hard to imagine that something can radically change here.
– But the Baltic countries, Ukraine were also closely economically connected with Russia. However, they managed to get rid of her. And the politicians there said that it is necessary to get rid of this dependence, no matter what it costs. Maybe a politician in Belarus can offer the same to Belarusians?
– On the flank, on the pole, that’s how you can talk in Belarus. But it is not for the majority.