“He has used chemical weapons in the past, we should be aware of what will happen. The warning, dated Monday March 21, is clear. United States President Joe Biden says it loud and clear: Vladimir Putin could use banned chemical weapons to regain the military initiative in his war with Ukraine and bring down the cities that resist his troops.
But what is the real state of Russia’s chemical weapons arsenal? Officially, the country has not had any since 2017. However, in the early 1990s, the USSR identified nearly 40,000 tonnes of chemical weapons, which made it the first military power on the planet in this regard.
Dismantling of stocks
After the fall of the Soviet bloc, the Russian Federation ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1993. It then undertook to dismantle all of its arsenals within the next fourteen years. However, it will benefit from additional time and financial and technical assistance from several Western countries.
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On September 27, 2017, Vladimir Putin and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in charge of ensuring compliance with the commitments of the 1993 convention, announced with great fanfare the destruction of its last chemical munitions.
The images of the Russian president announcing to the world a Russia without chemical weapons, however, are struggling to convince across the Atlantic. The American intelligence services reveal in the press their suspicions vis-à-vis Russia, fearing that the country has in no way ceased to pursue its research on the development of illicit weapons.
Use of novichok
One product is particularly in the sights of Westerners. Developed in the 1970s, novichok forms a set of nerve agents, like sarin gas or VX gas. More powerful than the latter, it was mainly developed in the 1990s to circumvent international legislation.
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Russia is suspected of having used novichok in the assassination of former spy Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom in 2018. And also to poison Kremlin opponent Alexei Navalny in 2020. The novichok is placed, at the end of 2019, on the 1993 Convention’s list of prohibited weapons.
These events prompt the Trump administration to sanction Russia in 2020, blacklisting three Russian research facilities. The following year, Joe Biden expanded this list to other laboratories in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Chlorine or ammonia
The spotlight is now on possible chemical attacks in Ukraine to accelerate the Russian invasion. No one really knows whether Russia has a permanent arsenal of such weapons. But, in reality, stocks are no longer necessary, the country having the capacity to produce large quantities in a short time.
“They can make hundreds of kilograms of nerve agents pretty quickly”thus reported, to the Washington Post, John Gilbert, researcher at the Washington-based Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. For this former inspector of Russian storage centers, the production of new toxic substances may occur “ in a few days “.
In addition to nerve agents, the Russian army could also resort to less sophisticated weapons, chlorine or ammonia. The substances necessary for their manufacture are easily found in a country like Ukraine. The Kremlin has been accusing the Ukrainian authorities for several days of preparing a chemical attack, which Westerners interpret as a potential pretext to carry out a bombardment of this type.