2023-09-05 21:03:05
Germany has become the main escape point for Ukrainians who left their country because of the Russian war of aggression. On the other hand, the number of those seeking refuge in Poland is falling. The Center for Economic Strategy (CES) in Kiev, which has analyzed the flight movements since the beginning of the attack, puts the reason for this primarily in the more generous aid granted in Germany.
Andreas Mihm
Business correspondent for Austria, Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey based in Vienna.
According to the new analysis, 5.6-6.7 million Ukrainians live abroad. This means that about one in seven Ukrainians has left the country since the outbreak of war, and millions of internally displaced persons are added to this. About 1.3 million Ukrainians live in Russia or Belarus, the remaining 4.3 to 5.4 million mainly in the EU. The majority of the refugees are often highly qualified women, 18 percent of whom are between the ages of 35 and 49, and their children.
In August, Germany took the lead in the EU with 1.08 million refugees, ahead of Poland with 968,000 and the Czech Republic with 365,000. After the raid, most Ukrainians initially stayed in Poland, where many could rely on networks of Ukrainian workers working in the neighboring country.
The author of the study, Darija Mykhailyshna, sees a major reason for the growing importance of Germany in the state aid for refugees. “Many countries have reduced aid, Germany is an exception.” Currently, 56 percent of Ukrainian refugees living in Poland are receiving state aid, in Germany it is 76 percent. In surveys, 62 percent of Ukrainians living in Poland stated, and the trend is growing, that the aid was not enough to cover basic needs. In contrast, the number of those in Germany who consider the aid insufficient has fallen to 9 percent, while the average for all other EU countries is 23 percent.
Generous Germany
In Germany, refugees from the Ukraine are entitled to basic income (502 euros per month for an adult, 318 to 420 euros for children) and other assistance such as rent and heating allowances. Elsewhere, such as in the Czech Republic, aid has already been scaled back or bonuses have been offered to returnees, with reference to the state’s tight financial situation, an instrument that Ireland and Switzerland are trying out.
Thomas Gutschker Published/Updated: Recommendations: 70 Andreas Mihm, Berlin Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 14 Andreas Mihm and Archibald Preuschat Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 16
One issue remains the question of willingness to return to the war-torn country. The government in Kiev fears that the lack of qualified specialists could become the biggest obstacle to costly reconstruction.
According to the CES survey, 63 percent of those who fled plan to return. An important criterion for this are the living and housing conditions in Ukraine. However, it is foreseeable that the number of returnees will shrink the longer the war lasts and the people have settled into the new place and found or were looking for work. The willingness to return decreases as current income increases. Some see better opportunities for their children abroad.
According to the study, 1.3 to 3.3 million Ukrainians could stay abroad. Their absence would cost the economy annual growth of 2.7 to 6.9 percent of its gross domestic product.
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