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Already 3.8 million Ukrainians have arrived in Europe, their number could double if the conflict drags on. How is the European Union mobilizing to deal with this unprecedented influx? And what will be the economic consequences of their stay?
To everyone’s surprise, Europe, so cautious in 2015, even hostile to Syrians also fleeing the war, has become very welcoming in 2022 to receive its Ukrainian neighbors. 60% of them are in Poland. They are also in Moldova, Romania or Slovakia; sometimes in transit before settling further west. After the spontaneous solidarity shown by the population, the State must now take over because families, especially women and their children, are obviously there for many months, even years. They need to find accommodation, learn the language and, if possible, work. Supporting them in these missions is the responsibility of the State.
An operation that will have a huge cost, especially for the countries of Eastern Europe
Indeed, the countries on the eastern flank do not have the infrastructure to cope, Poland declared itself before this war to be totally opposed to migration and therefore has no ad hoc services. Moldova, which is not a member of the EU, is already facing high youth unemployment and its economy is suffering from the shutdown of trade with Russia and Ukraine. To help all countries cope, the 27 have decided to allocate 10 billion euros to reception. And especially to give these refugees access for a year to health, school, and the right to work. The European Central Bank is also called upon to facilitate the exchange of those who arrive with some savings in hrivnia, a Ukrainian currency totally devalued by the war and which most banks refuse.
The next challenge will be to facilitate the professional integration of displaced Ukrainians
If war breaks out, this will very quickly become essential. This resource, primarily female, can also be an opportunity for host countries facing a labor shortage. This is the case of Germany and Poland. These two countries were already competing to attract Ukrainians before the start of the Russian offensive. This is also the case of the countries of the East which are in the process of depopulation. This is often overlooked, but Romania, for example, brings in Vietnamese, Indians or Nepalese to fill vacant positions.
In these countries in demand, Ukrainian refugees could be not a burden but an engine of activity
This is demonstrated by the recent history of migration crises. Israel has become a start-up nation, among other things, thanks to the contribution of the Soviet diaspora. After the fall of the wall the population of the Jewish State suddenly increased by 15% with 600,000 newcomers in five years; the million and a half Vietnamese who arrived in the United States after 1975 boosted trade with that country. This sudden explosion of a foreign population is also a political risk, we saw in Germany the rise of the AFD, the far-right party after 2015. This progression is very clear not in the regions which have received the most of refugees but in the most deprived. This is why the public policies put in place for new arrivals must also benefit regions in difficulty, advocate economists who are experts in this forced migration.
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