The origins of the COVID-19 pandemic remain a subject of intense scientific scrutiny, with a recent report from the World Health Organization’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) adding to the complex picture. While a definitive answer remains elusive, the group’s assessment, completed in June 2025, strongly suggests a zoonotic origin – meaning the virus jumped from an animal to humans – is the most likely scenario. Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 emerged is crucial not only for historical understanding but also for preventing future pandemics and mitigating their devastating impact.
The investigation into the origins of the virus began shortly after the pandemic’s emergence. In November 2021, the WHO convened SAGO, comprised of 27 experts from 27 nations, to analyze available data and formulate recommendations. The group’s work involved reviewing published scientific papers, intelligence reports, and presentations from experts, during closed meetings spanning from November 2021 to June 2025. The latest assessment builds upon initial findings published in June 2022, offering a more comprehensive evaluation of the evidence.
Zoonotic Origin: The Leading Hypothesis
The SAGO report indicates that the majority of peer-reviewed scientific evidence supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals. However, the report emphasizes that pinpointing the exact circumstances of the jump to humans – when, where, and how it occurred – requires further investigation. The report highlights the critical need for more data and access to information to solidify these conclusions. As noted in a related article from Nature, 23 of the 27 original SAGO members contributed to the 2025 report, underscoring a consensus view despite some internal debate.
The search for the animal source continues, with researchers focusing on bats as a potential reservoir. However, identifying the intermediate animal host – the species that transmitted the virus from bats to humans – remains a key challenge. The WHO report stresses the importance of continued surveillance of animal populations and improved collaboration between researchers globally to track potential zoonotic threats.
The Lab-Leak Theory and Data Access
The possibility of an accidental lab-related incident as the origin of the virus has been a persistent topic of discussion. The SAGO report acknowledges this hypothesis but states that much of the information needed to assess it adequately has not been made available to the WHO or the advisory group. This lack of transparency hinders a complete evaluation of this potential pathway. As reported by Nature, four of the original SAGO members did not co-author the 2025 report, with three dissenting from the evaluation of the lab-leak hypothesis due to a lack of evidence.
The report underscores the critical importance of sharing all relevant information as quickly as possible. Full access to data, including samples and research records, is essential for a thorough and unbiased investigation. Without complete transparency, it remains tricky to definitively rule out any potential origin scenario.
Ongoing Investigations and Future Steps
Though the first term of the SAGO group concluded in October of last year, the WHO has proposed a second term and is seeking latest participants. This demonstrates the organization’s continued commitment to unraveling the mystery of COVID-19’s origins. The 2025 report provides recommendations for future investigations, emphasizing the need for a multidisciplinary approach involving virologists, epidemiologists, and animal health experts.
The politicization and speculation surrounding the pandemic’s origin have complicated the scientific process. The 23 SAGO scientists who authored the report are clarifying their position to provide a science-based assessment amidst ongoing debate. Their goal is to move beyond conjecture and focus on evidence-based conclusions.
The WHO continues to emphasize the importance of international collaboration and data sharing in preventing future pandemics. Strengthening global surveillance systems, improving laboratory safety protocols, and fostering open communication between researchers are all crucial steps in safeguarding public health. For the latest updates and information on the WHO’s work on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, please visit the WHO website.
The investigation into the origins of COVID-19 is far from over. The next key checkpoint will be the formation of the second SAGO group and the implementation of the recommendations outlined in the June 2025 report. Continued research and international cooperation are essential to finally answer the question of how this devastating pandemic began and to prevent similar events in the future.
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