The abstentions and the votes of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes are key to respond. The second round is on October 30.
Passed the first round of presidential election of Brazil and the victory of Lula da Silva with 48% of the votes means that there will be a runoff between the PT candidate and the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, who came second with 43%, since none exceeded the threshold of 50% of the votes.
The second round will be on October 30, an instance that will be defined by the ability of both candidates to convince approximately 21% of the population who did not go to vote, as well as for what do the voters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomeswho came third and fourth in these elections.
Logic and history dictate that the candidate who wins in the first round should triumph in the second. In Brazil itself, this is what has happened in the last 20 years, from the victories of Lula (in 2002 and 2006) and Dilma Rousseff (in 2010 and 2014), to that of Bolsonaro himself, in 2018.
The polls prior to the first round also gave as winner over Lula in an eventual ballot by a wide advantagea fact to be taken with tweezers in view of Bolsonaro’s performance on Sunday, well above what was predicted by the polls.
One fact from Sunday’s election is that the 20.94% of the population that did not go to vote not only exceeded the 20.3% registered in 2018, but it is also the highest abstention since 1998.
Those 32.6 million Brazilians who did not go to the polls are a priori the main “hunting ground” of votes to add for both candidates, in view of the high polarization of the election. In principle, the ruling party has a better chance of reaching these voters, since it has all the resources of the State.
The second source of votes to be seduced are those that the other candidates will reap and who will now have to opt for Lula or Bolsonaro, a total of 8.4% of the electorate where the 4% harvested by Simone Tebet, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and the 3% of Ciro Gomes, of the Democratic Labor Party (PDL), stand out.
A centrist and a former ally of Lula in the center of the scene
A cursory reading from above the ballot stage could conclude that Tebet’s votes will go directly to Bolsonaro’s coffers.
The proposition is not without logic: Tebet was like candidate of an emblematic “Centrao” partythat powerful bloc that manages a large part of Brazilian politics and has supported the official candidate throughout his 4 years in government.
However, the presence of the former governor of São Paulo and faithful representative of the Brazilian bourgeoisie, Geraldo Alckmin, as a vice-presidential candidate on the PT ticket is a sign that the sympathies of the center are at least divided.
Hours after the election concluded, Tebet declared that he had already made a decision regarding the ballot, but that he would make it known at the appropriate time. “Do not expect my omission and make your decision soon“He urged his followers on Sunday night.
What will happen to the votes of Ciro Gomes, meanwhile, is another unknown that defies initial impressions. As Lula’s former minister and candidate for the PDL, a party that formed a coalition with the PT, his electorate would in principle feel more sympathy for the former president ahead of the ballot.
In a highly polarized scenario, Gomes, however, devoted large portions of his campaign to attacking Lulato such an extent that it forced emblematic figures of the PDL, such as the singer Caetano Veloso, to come out publicly to detach themselves from their statements and support the PT candidate.
His strong rancor against Lula during the campaign raises doubts about not only what decision he will make for the second round, but also their voters.
For some analysts, a portion of the votes that Bolsonaro ended up getting and boosted him above what the polls indicated. came from the electorate of Gomeswhich appeared in the polls with 7% intention to vote and it ended with 3%.
After the elections, Gomes declared that he had not yet decided whether in the second round he would support some of the candidates, or leave his voters free choice.